My paper is the first to provide long-term evidence on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks on mineral commodity prices. I explore a new annual data-set on prices and production of copper, lead, tin, zinc, and crude oil from 1840 to 2010. Long-term price fluctuations are mainly driven by persistent “world output-driven demand shocks” and “other demand shocks”. Historical accounts of ...

T his study examines how oil price shocks interact with the stock market index within a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model in Iran. Based on quarterly data for the period from 1991 to 2017, the findings revealed statistically significant evidence of short-run and long-run asymmetric behavior of stock market index in response to the positive a...

I use daily futures price data to examine the behavior of natural gas and crude oil price volatility in the U.S. since 1990. I test whether there has been a significant trend in volatility, whether there was a short-term increase in volatility during the time of the Enron collapse, and whether natural gas and crude oil price volatilities are interrelated. I also measure the persistence of shock...

In this paper we investigate the effect of oil price shocks on stock market index in Iran, by using of a structural VAR (SVAR) approach. We used four variables in the model namely Kilian index, global oil supply, real oil price and real stock market index. The data are monthly and spanning the period 1997M10-2014M12. We identify the effect of four different shocks on stock market including oil ...

Using a sample of monthly observations of both a 12-category group and a 203-category group of personal consumption expenditures, we furnish evidence that relative price variability is positively related to both the inflation rate and inflation variability. The relation is robust to oil-price shocks.  2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

In many empirical studies, the dynamic relationship among energy sector variables (such as, oil, electricity, gasoline, coal, renewable energy, etc.) and economic variables (such as; financial markets, real economy and the overall economy) are studied. Oil price changes may affect the economic variables more of oil importer countries then oil exporter countries especially emerging markets. In a...

A central problem ill empirical macroeconomics is to determine when and how much the exchange rate is misaligned. This paper clarifies and calculates the concept of’ the equilibrium real exchange rate, using a structural vector auto regression (VAR) model. By imposing long—run restrictions on a VAR model for Iran, lour structural shocks are identified: nominal demand, real demand, supply and oi...

Abstract This article is an empirical attempt to explore the relationship between sanctions (financial and non-financial), oil price shocks and Iran-Russian bilateral trade flows over the period 1991–2014. In contrast to earlier studies in which a gravity model has been estimated through a panel data approach, in this paper the authors apply a gravity model for only two countries and do the es...