The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University currently issues seasonal forecasts for Atlantic basin hurricane activity in early April, June, and August. This paper examines the potential for issuing an additional seasonal forecast on 1 July, using a two-predictor forecast model. The two predictors are selected from the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and explain over 60...

High resolution information of climatic conditions is essential to many application in environmental sciences. Here we present the CHELSA algorithm to downscale temperature and precipitation estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) climatic reanalysis interim (ERA-Interim) to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The algorithm for temperature is based on a statist...

In this paper, zonal momentum balances of the tropical atmospheric circulation during the global monsoon mature months (January and July) are analyzed in three dimensions based on the ECMWF Interim ReAnalysis (ERA-Interim). It is found that the dominant terms in the balance of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in both months are the pressure gradient force, the Coriolis force, and friction. ...

High-resolution numerical weather forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) archive are used to investigate the climate of West Antarctica (WA) during 2006–07. A comparison with observations from West Antarctic automatic weather stations confirms the skill of the model at simulating near-surface variables. AMPS cloud cover is also compared with estimates of monthly cloud f...

Abstract. This paper investigates the global stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in ERA5 meteorological reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The analysis is based on simulations of mean age air, including full spectrum, with Lagrangian transport model CLaMS (Chemical Model Stratosphere), driven by winds and total diabatic heating rates. ERA5-base...

Ensemble initial perturbations around Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) produced by ECMWF, NCEP, and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) ensembles are compared using The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data, and the dynamical mechanisms of perturbation growth associated with the tropical cyclone (TC) motion are investigated for ...

In this study, we evaluate the ability of the BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) mesoscale model compared to ECMWF global analysis to simulate the observed vertical variations of water vapour in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The observations are balloon-borne measurements of water vapour mixing ratio and temperature from microSDLA (Tunable Dio...

This study documents the preferred location and diurnal cycle of extreme convective storms that occur in the tropical band containing the east Pacific Ocean, Central and South America, the Atlantic Ocean, and northern Africa. Data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar show three types of convective-stratiform structures that constitute extreme convective events...