This paper presents a theoretical model in which the stock growth rate of durable goods has stochastic fluctuation over time. It concludes that a social planner increases the expected percentage rate of production since uncertainty increases the user cost from consumer’s point view.

We investigate the issue of model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). We find that the posterior probability is very spread among many models suggesting the superiority of BMA over choosing any single model. Out-of-sample predictive results support this claim. In contrast with Levine and Renelt (1992), our results broadly support the more “optim...

Several authors report regressions where inflation slows economic growth. These results have been criticized because of their sensitivity to the sample analyzed and because there does not appear to be a strong theoretical reason for believing that inflation significantly lowers growth. Indeed, researchers have suggested that inflation proxies for inflation uncertainty or poor economic policy. M...

We investigate whether the financial system dampens or exacerbates monetary shocks of inflation uncertainty to the economy. Our GMM-estimates for 88 countries over a period of 25 years show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant impact on the volatility of economic growth. More importantly, we find that financial development dampens the negative effects of inflation uncertain...

As uncertainty has become an increasingly prominent source of business cycle fluctuations, various uncertainty proxies have been proposed in the literature. This paper shows that uncertainty measures based on realized variables fluctuate more than the measures that are based on forecasts. More precisely, the variation in the realized cross-sectional standard deviation of profit growth and stock...

This paper presents a methodology to quantify the uncertainty in fatigue damage prognosis, applied to structures with complicated geometry and subjected to variable amplitude multi-axial loading. Finite element analysis is used to address the complicated geometry and calculate the stress intensity factors. Multi-modal stress intensity factors due to multi-axial loading are combined to calculate...

We measure global real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty and analyze its impact on individual countries’ macroeconomic performance. Global uncertainty is measured through the conditional variances of global factors in inflation and output growth, estimated from a bivariate dynamic factor model with GARCH errors. The impact of global uncertainty is measured by including the conditional varia...

this paper empirically investigates the relationship between cpi inflation uncertainty, and private investment in the iranian economy from 1988 to 2010 by using quarterly data. we employ a bivariate var(5)-garch(1,1)-in-mean with diagonal bekk model to discover in a unified framework how are the interactions between the variables. in the model, conditional variance of inflation and private inve...

We provide a strategic rationale for growth options under uncertainty and imperfect competition. In a market with strategic competition, investment confers a greater capability to take advantage of future growth opportunities. This strategic advantage leads to the capture of a greater share of the market, either by dissuading entry or by inducing competitors to 'make room' for the stronger comp...

We compare two approaches for inclusion of uncertainty/variability in modeling growth in size-structured population models. One entails imposing a probabilistic structure on growth rates in the population while the other involves formulating growth as a stochastic Markov diffusion process. We present a theoretical analysis that allows one to include comparable levels of uncertainty in the two d...