Managers have begun to recognize that effectively managing risks in their business operations plays an important role in successfully managing their inventories. Accordingly, we develop a ðQ ; rÞ model based on fuzzy-set representations of various sources of uncertainty in the supply chain. Sources of risk and uncertainty in our model include demand, lead time, supplier yield, and penalty cost....

This paper presents a systemic decision support approach for safety risk analysis under uncertainty in tunnel construction. Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBN) is used to investigate causal relationships between tunnel-induced damage and its influential variables based upon the risk/hazard mechanism analysis. Aiming to overcome limitations on the current probability estimation, an expert confidence i...

Market risk exposure plays a key role for financial institutions risk management. A possible measure for this exposure is to evaluate losses likely to incur when the price of the portfolio’s assets declines using Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates, one of the most prominent measure of financial downside market risk. This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic fuzzy modeling approach for VaR estima...

The main research intent of this paper is to introduce the use of fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) in conjunction to analyse the risk and reliability of a complex mechatronic system in both qualitative and quantitative manner. The major focus is on handling imprecise and vague information with the help of fuzzy synthesis of information. A complex mechatroni...

This paper presents a nuclear case study, in which a fuzzy inference system (FIS) is used as alternative approach in risk analysis. The main objective of this study is to obtain an understanding of the aging process of an important nuclear power system and how it affects the overall plant safety. This approach uses the concept of a pure fuzzy logic system where the fuzzy rule base consists of a...

Ranking fuzzy numbers plays a main role in many applied models inreal world and in particular decision-making procedures. In manyproposed methods by other researchers may exist some shortcoming.The most commonly used approaches for ranking fuzzy numbers isbased on defuzzification method. Many ranking fuzzy numberscannot discriminate between two symmetric fuzzy numbers withidentical core. In 200...