Causal loops are a recurring feature in the philosophy of time travel, where it is generally agreed that they logically possible but may come with theoretical cost. This paper introduces an unfamiliar set causal loop cases involving knowledge or beliefs about future: self-fulfilling prophecy (SFP loops). I show how and when such arise consider their relationship to more familiar

Notwithstanding its widespread use in financial markets and well-documented profitability, technical analysis is still perceived to carry useless information. This paper provides a possible explanation for this puzzle that goes beyond the standard self-fulfilling prophecy argument. If at least some of the asset price fundamentals are not currently observable, the oscillator model is able to inf...

In 1965, Gordon Moore, at Fairchild Semiconductor, quantified the growth of semiconductors, saying that they had been doubling at regular intervals and would continue to do so. Dubbed ‘Moore’s Law’, it quickly became a reliable predictor of future trends and is even used as a baseline strategy for the industry for the next 15 years. Extrapolating out to 2050 the numbers still look possible. App...

A predictor that is deployed in a live production system may perturb the features it uses to make predictions. Such a feedback loop can occur, for example, when a model that predicts a certain type of behavior ends up causing the behavior it predicts, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this paper we analyze predictor feedback detection as a causal inference problem, and introduce a lo...