in this study, application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (anfis) in forecasting three perspectives (1, 2, and 4 years) ahead of iran’s agricultural products export was compared with arima as the most common econometrics linear forecasting method. for this purpose, iran’s agricultural products export revenues related to 1959-2010, and forecast performance measures such as r2, mad, and...

Petroleum (crude oil) is one of the most important resources of energy and its demand and consumption is growing while it is a non-renewable energy resource. Hence forecasting of its demand is necessary to plan appropriate strategies for managing future requirements. In this paper, three types of time series methods including univariate Seasonal ARIMA, Winters forecasting and Transfer Function-...

This paper examines financial professionals’ overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We are the first to compare individual financial professionals’ self-ratings with their true forecasting performance. Data spans several years at monthly frequency. The forecasters in our sample do not provide feasible self-ratings compared to their true performance but show overconfidence on average. ...

During the recent decades, neural network models have been focused upon by researchers due to their more real performance and on this basis, different types of these models have been used in forecasting. Now, there is a question that which kind of these models has more explanatory power in forecasting the future processes of the stock. In line with this, the present paper made a comparison betw...

Demand forecasting is one of the important activities in a supply chain which provides all the supply chain planning processes with market information crucial for efficient supply chain management. Its performance is measured by forecasting error, which is defined using the difference between forecast and actual sales. In this paper, we classify the forecasting error types based on the cases th...

We forecast high resolution solar irradiance time series using an exponential smoothing state space (ESSS) model. To stationarize the irradiance data before applying linear time series models, we propose a novel Fourier trend model and compare the performance with other popular trend models using residual analysis and the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) stationarity test. Using the opt...

Time series forecasting using machine learning algorithms has gained popularity recently. Random forest is a machine learning algorithm implemented in time series forecasting; however, most of its forecasting properties have remained unexplored. Here we focus on assessing the performance of random forests in one-step forecasting using two large datasets of short time series with the aim to sugg...