This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has been used to combine empirical and raw coupled model December SST Niño-3.4 index forecasts started at the end of the preceding July (5-month lead time). The empirical forecast...

Forecast reconciliation is a post-forecasting process aimed to improve the quality of base forecasts for system hierarchical/grouped time series. Cross-sectional and temporal hierarchies have been considered in literature, but generally, these two features not fully together. The paper presents new results by adopting notation that simultaneously deals with both forecast dimensions. (i) closed-...

This paper provides the first thorough investigation of negative weights that can emerge when combining forecasts. The usual practice in literature is to consider only convex combinations and ignore or trim weights, i.e., set them zero. default strategy has its merits, but it not optimal. We study problem from various angles, main conclusion highly correlated forecasts with similar variances ar...

It is often documented, based on autocorrelation, variance ratio and power spectrum, that exchange rates approximately follow a martingale process. Because autocorrelation, variance ratio and spectrum check serial uncorrelatedness rather than martingale difference, they may deliver misleading conclusions in favor of the martingale hypothesis when the test statistics are insigniÞcant. In this pa...

This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where a random walk forecast acts as benchmark. It is found that for five major OECD countries, namely Unit...

The tree mortality model plays an important role in simulating stand dynamic processes. Past work has shown that the disaggregation method was successful in improving tree survival prediction. This method was used in this study to forecast tree survival probability of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carrière) in Beijing. Outputs from the tree survival model were adjusted from either the stand...

A panel of ex-ante forecasts of a single time series is modeled as a dynamic factor model, where the conditional expectation is the single unobserved factor. When applied to out-of-sample forecasting, this leads to combination forecasts that are based on methods other than OLS. These methods perform well in a Monte Carlo experiment. These methods are evaluated empirically in a panel of simulate...

The road icing is an adverse weather condition lead to dangerous driving conditions with consequential effects on road transportation. A numerical road icing predication approach is employed for automatic prediction of road icing conditions in three cities of Hubei Province, viz., Wuhan, Shiyan and Xianning. The approach is derived from the support vector machine (SVM). To improve the classific...

-. Port throughput forecast plays a great role in the development of port logistics economy. This paper works over that significant subject based on a new kind of nonlinear combination method, which is composed of linear exponential smoothing model, simple moving average method and Elman network. The forecasted values through the first two methods are taken as the inputs of Elman network, which...