Why did Finland experience in 1991-93 the deepest recession observed in an industrialized country since the 1930s? Using a dynamic general equilibrium model with labor frictions, we argue that the collapse of the Soviet-Finnish trade was a major contributor to the contraction. Finland’s experience mirrors that of the transition economies of Eastern Europe, which suffered similar deep recessions...

This paper studies the survival of fixed exchange rate regimes. The probability of an exit from a fixed exchange rate regime depends on the time spent within this regime. In such a context durations models are appropriate, in particular because of the possible non-monotonic pattern of duration dependence. Non-parametric estimates show that the pattern of duration dependence exhibits non-monoton...

Yes. A country’s suitability for EMU entry depends on the intensity of trade with EMU members, and the extent to which its business cycles are correlated with those of other members. But both international trade patterns and international business cycle correlations are endogenous. Theoretically, economic integration has an ambiguous effect on the degree to which business cycles are correlated ...

This paper further tests Romer’s (1993) extension of Kydland and Prescott’s (1977) predictions for dynamic-inconsistency problems in open economies. In a panel data set of developed and developing countries from 1973 to 1998, I find that openness does not play a role in restricting inflation in the short-run. On the other hand, a fixed exchange-rate regime plays a significant role. The results ...

We estimate the exposure of emerging-market companies to fluctuations in their domestic exchange rates. We use an instrumental-variable approach that identifies the total exposure of a company to exchange-rate movements, yet abstracts from the influence of confounding macroeconomic shocks. We find the impact of depreciations on emerging-market stock returns is overwhelmingly negative. Since we ...

We develop a two-country overlapping-generations model with domestic financial frictions and show that cross-country differences in financial development explain three recent patterns of international capital flows. In our model, domestic financial frictions distort the interest rates and production efficiency in the less financially developed country. Capital flows not only lead to cross-count...

This paper presents a potential solution to the home bias puzzle based on a new open economy macroeconomics model. In response to technology shocks, sticky prices generate a negative correlation between labor income and the profits of domestic firms, leading to home bias in equity holdings. In contrast, under flexible prices, labor income and the profits of the domestic firms are positively cor...

Using the data from a developing country like India, we offer an empirical analysis to examine the relationship between devaluation of the Rupee and the real trade balance with her major trading partners since the liberalization process that began in July 1991. Exploiting the recent advances in panel-data time-series econometrics, we document that devaluation may not be effective in improving t...

I use bilateral import data to test for the role of trade costs and asset market frictions in impeding international consumption risk sharing. Trade costs play a significant role. I do not reject the null of optimal risk sharing within OECD countries, though I do reject for the world as a whole. I calculate the impact on ex-post welfare of moving from historical asset market frictions to optima...

This paper shows that in a small open economy with downward nominal wage rigidity pegging the nominal exchange rate creates a pecuniary externality. The externality causes unemployment, overborrowing, and depressed consumption. Ramsey optimal capital controls are shown to be prudential in the sense that they tax capital inflows in good times and subsidize external borrowing in bad times. Under ...