Metacognition relative to medical decision making has been poorly investigated to date. However, beliefs about methods of decision making (metacognition) play a fundamental role in determining the efficiency of the decision itself. In the present study, we investigated a set of beliefs that physicians develop in relation to the modes of making decisions in a professional environment. The Solomo...

In the light of new information it is sometimes necessary to change existing beliefs regarding the state of the world. During such a belief revision reasoners have to decide which beliefs to retain and which ones to retract in order to regain consistency within their belief states. Drawn from the conception that spatial belief revision is based on the alteration of mental models, we discuss the...

In an abstract model with asymmetric information, we show that there is a duality relationship between the prior beliefs and trading demands of bets for any given individual. Then we aggregate all the agents to obtain a second duality relationship between common prior beliefs and trading possibilities. We easily derive from these relationships the no trade theorem and its converse. General effi...

Intuitively, we expect that players who are allowed to engage in costless communication before playing a game would be foolish to agree on an inefficient equilibrium. At the same time, however, such preplay communication has been suggested as a rationale for expecting Nash equilibrium in general. This paper presents a plausible formal model of cheap talk that distinguishes and resolves these po...

Finding adequate semantic models of deductive reasoning is a difficult problem, if deductions are to be performed efficiently and in a semantically appropriate way. The model of reasoning provided by possible-worlds semantics has been found deficient both for computational and intuitive reasons. Existing semantic approaches that were proposed as alternatives to possible-worlds semantics either ...

The effectiveness of any promotional strategy depends, in part, on how accurately channel members predict consumers’ perceptions of their promotional activity. However, empirical research on channel member predictions and their accuracy is virtually nonexistent. In this article we examine manufacturer and retailer beliefs about consumers’ (and each others’) perceptions of sales promotions and a...

This paper analyzes interactions between agents who are overconfident regarding their own future self-control relative to others. The paper considers the problem of incentivizing several such agents, and compares two methods: assigning work individually to each agent or jointly to pairs of agents. If the agents are homogenous in their preferences and beliefs, then the joint assignment method do...

While off-policy temporal difference methods have been broadly used in reinforcement learning due to their efficiency and simple implementation, their Bayesian counterparts have been relatively understudied. This is mainly because the max operator in the Bellman optimality equation brings non-linearity and inconsistent distributions over value function. In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesia...

Spoken dialog systems typically rely on recognition confidence scores to guard against potential misunderstandings. While confidence scores can provide an initial assessment for the reliability of the information obtained from the user, ideally systems should leverage information that is available in subsequent user responses to update and improve the accuracy of their beliefs. We present a mac...