....................................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 8 Weather Forecasts ....................................................................................................

This paper shows that, in case of high sensitivity to data econometric modeling, using evolutionary algorithms (Genetic Algorithms GA and Simulated Annealing SA) is better than using classical gradient techniques. The evaluation of the algorithms involved was performed on a short form of an economic macromodel. The optimization task is the model’s solution, as function of the initial values (in...

We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985. Five procedures were identified: revising judgment; combining forecasts; revising extrapolations; rule-based forecasting; and econometric forecasting. This literature suggests that integration gene...

This paper gives an excellent overview of the way that econometric models are used to help formulate monetary policy at the Federal Reserve Board. David Reifschneider, David Stockman, and David Wilcox stress at the start of their paper that econometric models are used to help the staff of the Fed "support the monetary policymaking endeavors" of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rather th...

Abstract Many macroeconomic forecasts are the outcome of a judgmental adjustment to forecast from an econometric model. The size, direction, and motivation often unknown as usually only final is available. This problematic in case analyst wishes learn errors, which could lead improving model, judgment or both. paper therefore proposes formal method include judgment, makes combined reproducible....

In this paper, Inflation constitutes one of the major economic problems in emerging market economies that requires monetary authorities to elaborate tools and policies to prevent high volatility in prices and long periods of inflation. This paper outlines to forecast monthly inflation rate of India by using neural networks on the evaluation of set of variables. The data used for estimating the ...