A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitu...

The null hypothesis in assessing earthquake predictions is often, loosely speaking, that the successful predictions are chance coincidences. To make this more precise requires specifying a chance model for the predictions and/or the seismicity. The null hypothesis tends to be rejected not only when the predictions have merit, but also when the chance model is inappropriate. In one standard appr...

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic techniqu...

In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms...

Short-term earthquake prediction, months in advance, is an elusive goal of earth sciences, of great importance for fundamental science and for disaster preparedness. Here, we describe a methodology for short-term prediction named RTP (Reverse Tracing of Precursors). Using this methodology the San Simeon earthquake in Central California (magnitude 6.5, Dec. 22, 2003) and the Tokachi-Oki earthqua...

A new earthquake prediction system is presented in this work. This method, based on the application of artificial neural networks, has been used to predict earthquakes in Chile, one of the countries with larger seismic activity. The input values are related to the b-value, the Bath’s law, and the Omori–Utsu’s law, parameters that are strongly correlated with seismicity, as shown in solid previo...

Electromagnetic phenomena observed in association with increases in seismic activity have been studied for several decades. These phenomena are generated during the precursory phases of an earthquake as well as during the main event. Their occurrence during the precursory phases may be used in short-term prediction of a large earthquake. In this paper, we examine ultra-low frequency (ULF) elect...

We review the recent paper by Su et al. (2013). Using Global Position System and Global Ionospheric Maps data, Su et al. claimed to have found ionospheric precursors a few days before the 16 October 1999 Hector Mine, California, earthquake. They proposed that this type of analysis of ionospheric data may be useful for locating forthcoming large earthquakes. In this Comment, we reexamine these d...