British Journal of DermatologyVolume 184, Issue 2 p. e37-e37 Plain Language SummaryFree Access The burden acne across the world First published: 05 February 2021 https://doi.org/10.1111/bjd.19728Citations: 1AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions Use check box below...

Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach In this paper, we develop an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows for a unified ...

We provide a new way to filter US inflation into trend and cycle components, based on extracting long-run forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We operate the Kalman filter in reverse, beginning with observed forecasts, then estimating parameters, and then extracting the stochastic trend in inflation. The trend-cycle model with unobserved components is consistent with numerous ...

This paper investigates the effects of media coverage and macroeconomic conditions on inflation forecast disagreement of German households and professional forecasters. We adopt a Bayesian learning model in which media coverage of inflation affects forecast disagreement by influencing information sets as well as predictor choice. Our empirical results show that disagreement of households depend...

This paper introduces a Markov-Switching model where transition probabilities depend on higher frequency indicators and their lags, through polynomial weighting schemes. The MSV-MIDAS model is estimated via maximum likelihood methods. The estimation relies on a slightly modified version of Hamilton’s recursive filter. We use Monte Carlo simulations to assess the robustness of the estimation pro...

This paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) for forecasting inventory investment in South Africa. The model is estimated using quarterly data on actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price levels and interest rates, for the period of 1978 to 2000. The out-of-sample-forecast accuracy obtained from the BVECM, over the forecasting horizon of 2001:1 to 2003:4, is compa...

We examine inventory adjustment in the U.S. manufacturing sector using quarterly rmlevel data over the period 1978{97. Our evidence indicates that the inventory investment process is nonlinear and asymmetric, results consistent with a nonconvex adjustment cost structure. The inventory adjustment process di ers over the business cycle: for a given level of excess inventories, rms disinvest more ...

The paper explores the implications of different autonomous demands, with differing rates of growth, in a demand-led growth model where policy makers are concerned about the ratios of public sector debt to income and external debt to income. The actual growth rate is explained in terms of the growth rate of aggregate demand, with emphasis in the formation of expectations about growth in the lat...

The slope of the Treasury yield curve has often been cited as a leading economic indicator, with inversion of the curve being thought of as a harbinger of a recession. In this paper, I consider a number of probit models using the yield curve to forecast recessions. Models that use both the level of the federal funds rate and the term spread give better insample fit, and better out-of-sample pre...