It goes without saying that crude oil is important for both developed and emerging economies, with crude oil-related expenditures representing a significant proportion of total economic inputs, and an even more substantial share of total energy consumption. For example, energy expenditures of about $1,233 billion in the US currently account for some 8.8% of its GDP (from a high of 13.7% in 1981...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: C52 C53 Q47 Keywords: Oil prices Futures markets Stochastic processes Kalman filter Forecasting Stochastic process models of commodity prices are important inputs in energy investment evaluation and planning problems. In this paper, we focus on modeling and forecasting the long-term price level, since it is the dominant factor in many such applications....

futures contract is one of the most important derivatives that is used in financial markets in all over the world to buy or sell an asset or commodity in the future. pricing of this tool depends on expected price of asset or commodity at the maturity date. according to this, theoretical futures pricing models try to find this expected price in order to use in the futures contract. so in this ar...

generally, high oil prices slow economic growth, cause inflationary pressures and creates global imbalances. in addition, oil price volatility increase uncertainty and restrain the much-needed investment in the capital market. thus, this paper applies the augmented dickey fuller and johansen co-integration tests in which the effect of oil price volatility, crude oil price and stock price is ana...

In the global economy, crude oil is among the most important strategic goods that affects the performance of local and international markets. Prediction of the oil price has always been an important challenging topic in the global economy and producers and consumers have constantly been trying to improve their roll in the oil price changes and for many years OPEC has been one of the key players...

According to the standard analysis of commodity prices, stockpiling is a necessary signature of speculation. This paper develops an approach suggesting that speculation may temporarily push crude oil prices above the level justified by physical-market fundamentals, without necessarily resulting in a significant increase in oil inventories. Looking beyond debate on the value of oil-demand price-...

In this research, the DCC model is estimated to calculate dynamic correlation series between crude oil price and growth of Industry and Mine sector during 1367:1-1392:4. Then, Macroeconomic variables which can explain the dynamic correlation are analyzed as variables of contagion. So, the import, as an effective and affected variable from crude oil price, is separated to real import of consumpt...

Crude oil is a highly strategic commodity. This paper investigates the necessity of using interval data and interval econometric models for crude oil price forecasting. Compared to the traditional point-valued data, interval-valued data in a time period contain much more valuable information which is useful for market participant to make decisions. We develop three autoregressive conditional in...