Changes in credit risk may arise when either the value or the risk of corporate assets changes. Changes in the equity value associated with the changes in the asset value and changes in asset risk can be characterized into potentially countervailing direct and indirect effects. The indirect effect of risk on equity value is a function of factors that affect the debt value of including leverage,...

This paper studies the effect on economic capital from integrating interest rate and credit spread risk into credit portfolio models. By using fixed forward rates, most credit portfolio models currently employed in the banking industry ignore these risk factors. In contrast to previous studies, this paper accounts for correlated transition risk, credit spread risk, interest rate risk and also r...

We examine whether credit-spread curves, engendered by a mandatory subordinated-debt requirement for banks, would help predict bank risk. We extract the credit-spread curves each quarter for each bank in our sample, and analyze the information content of credit-spread slopes. We find that credit-spread slopes are significant predictors of future credit spreads. However, credit-spread slopes do ...

The design of a credit risk measurement model in the monetary and banking system will play an important role in increasing the profitability of banking resources. This article attempts to use two models of Logit and Z Altman to determine and predict the credit risk of facilities provided to legal entities at a private bank in Iran. The variables studied in this research include qualitative vari...

The purpose of this study is to find the relationship between lending to Small and Medium-size Exporter Enterprises (E-SMEs) and the use of Basel II Capital Accord for the first time in the banking system of Iran. Results showed that 96.69 percent of small firms were in the very low risk category of credit portfolio. This proof explains a consistent and balanced relationship between risk- weigh...

In this paper, we develop a generalized affine model to characterize correlated credit risk of multi-firms. When valuing credit derivatives, this new approach allows to incorporate correlative market and credit risk, interdependent default risk structure and counterparty risk into consideration. We have demonstrated our affine model not only combines the existing structural models and intensity...

in this paper data were collected from 120 farmers in north khorassan province for the two periods (2005-2007) in order to survey the role of rain-fed lentil risk profile for designing an insurance model. to evaluate looses of each risk, risk frequency, risk impact criteria’s as well as risk matrix were used. results showed that low risk was the largest risk area. during study period, a decreas...

Credit spreads are large, volatile and countercyclical, and recent empirical work suggests that risk premia, not expected credit losses, are responsible for these features. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while fairly safe in ordinary recessions, is exposed to economic depressions, this paper embeds a trade-off theory of capital structure into a real business cycle model with a small,...