This survey of actuarial credibility theory traces its origins, describes its evolutionary history, gives an account of its main issues and results, and assesses its merits with a view to related work in statistical science. Key-words: Experience rating, limited fluctuation theory, greatest accuracy theory, Bayes, linear Bayes, empirical Bayes, hierarchical models, Hilbert space methods, recurs...

Several credibility models found in published literature have largely been single dimensional in the sense that the observable claims are derived from a single individual risk or a single group of homogeneous risks over a period of time. In the case where the additional dimension of observing different individual risks or different groups of risks are allowed for, the assumption of independence...

Objective: To review what is known about young people’s drug use in Australia and to evaluate whether illicit drug use has become normalised among Australian youth. Method: Survey data and social research findings on young people’s illicit drug use are reviewed and evaluated against the criteria of the normalisation thesis. The utility of the normalisation thesis is assessed in the Australian c...

Despite the Internet has been rapidly developed in the past three decades, its intrinsic security mechanism, e.g., IP source address validation and user identification authentication, is still not well addressed. This results in numerous cyber security threats. In order to enhance the Internet accountability and deter potential cyber-attacks, in this paper, we propose TrueID, an IPv6 header ext...

recognizing the importance of the advertising in brand reinforcement and brand credibility, the authors conduct the present research for understanding the customers’ emotional responses toward the brand reinforcement and credibility and its effect on the perceived values and behavioral intentions. hypotheses were tested on data collected from 467 customers of mellat bank in semnan province in i...

Introduction. In the current era of digital communication, users share information they consider important, using wikis, blogs and social networking Websites. The digital content includes valuable as well as biased, false and demagogic information. The objectives of this review paper are, i) To understand the perceptions of users regarding Web credibility judgment and the problems faced by them...

In credibility ratemaking, one seeks to estimate the conditional mean of a given risk. The most accurate estimator (as measured by squared error loss) is the predictive mean. To calculate the predictive mean one needs the conditional distribution of losses given the parameter of interest (often the conditional mean) and the prior distribution of the parameter of interest. Young (1997. ASTIN Bul...

We present a general hierarchical Bayesian model where Intelligence Sources make Reports about events or states in the world, which we call Hypotheses. The underlying multi-entity Bayes net for even a simple scenario has hundreds of nodes. We hide the details via Wigmore diagrams and a Google Maps GUI. Our application domain is Intelligence data fusion in asymmetrical warfare (terrorism). Some ...

Due to the growing dependence on the WWW UserGenerated Content (UGC) as a primary source for information and news, the research on web credibility is becoming more important than ever before. In this paper we review previous efforts to evaluate information credibility, focusing specifically on microblogging. In particular, we provide a comparison of different systems for automatic assessment of...