The objective of this research is to model the behavior oil returns. volatility returns described through a TGARCH process. Conditional probability jumps are incorporated uniform, double exponential and normal jump intensity distributions. We found that follows stylized facts leptokurtosis, leverage effect clustering. abnormal information causes jumps, can cause another type unexpected changes ...

Probability model of a p-adic coin Conditional p-adic probability logic CPL Qp

A natural way to represent beliefs and the process of updating beliefs is presented by Bayesian probability theory, where belief of an agent a in P can be interpreted as a considering that P is more probable than not P. This paper attempts to get at the core logical notion underlying this. The paper presents a sound and complete neighbourhood logic for conditional belief and knowledge, and trac...

The main subject of this paper is the embedding of fuzzy set theory—and related concepts—in a coherent conditional probability scenario. This allows to deal with perception-based information—in the sense of Zadeh—and with a rigorous treatment of the concept of likelihood, dealing also with its role in statistical inference. A coherent conditional probability is looked on as a general non-additi...

According to the philosophical theory of inferentialism and its psychological counterpart, Hypothetical Inferential Theory (HIT), meaning an indicative conditional centrally involves strength inferential connection between antecedent consequent. This paper states, for first time, implications HIT probabilities conditionals. We report two experiments comparing these with those suppositional acco...

It is well-known that maximum entropy distributions, subject to appropriate moment constraints, arise in physics and mathematics. In an attempt to find a physical reason for the appearance of maximum entropy distributions, the following theorem is offered. The conditional distribution of X, given the empirical observation (1 /n)X:, ,/I ( X,) = (Y, where X, , X2, . are independent identically di...

Instructions: Your answers to the questions below, including plots and mathematical work, should be submitted as a single PDF file. It’s preferred that you write your answers using software that typesets mathematics (e.g. LATEX, LYX, or MathJax via iPython), though if you need to you may scan handwritten work. You may find the minted package convenient for including source code in your LATEX do...

This paper is dedicated to our friend Marek, for his birthday. Two of us know Marek since more than 20 years, when we embarked in the adventure of Mathematics for Finance. Our paths diverged, but we always kept strong ties. Thank you, Marek, for all the fruitful discussions we have had. We hope you will find some interest in this paper and the modeling of credit risk we present, and we are look...

An important field of probability logic is the investigation of inference rules that propagate point probabilities or, more generally, interval probabilities from premises to conclusions. Conditional probability logic (CPL) interprets the common sense expressions of the form “if . . . , then . . . ” by conditional probabilities and not by the probability of the material implication. An inferenc...

In the classical theory of probability we start by a pair (Ω, ), with Ω set of elementary events and σ-algebra of subsets of Ω, called events. A probability on is defined as a countable additive and positive function p such that p(Ω)=1. If A and B are two events, the conditional probability p(A/B) is defined if and only if p(B) is not null, by considering the quotient p(AB)/p(B). In the theory ...