Traditional cash flow estimation techniques focus on generating net cash flow estimates period-by-period, which are then discounted by the firm's cost of capital. While conceptually strong, this aggregation approach can be insensitive to the fine-grained detail so important to managing project cash flows, in particular, that investment returns are always a combination of growth (renewal) and de...

Mortgage-backed securities differ from corporate and government bonds in that their cash flows cannot be estimated with certainty, since homeowners often prepay their mortgages. Prepayments may include sale of the property, refinancing, curtailments, or liquidation of the property due to foreclosure. Standard fixed-income measurements, which allow investors to compare different types of bonds, ...

This paper presents a simple Excel model that provides measures of the standard deviation of forecasted internal rate of return (IRR) given traditional data inputs such as annual cash flows, terminal values and equity. The model first calculates IRR using traditional discounted cash flow methods and then provides heuristic estimates of variability measured in terms of ‘‘high,’’ ‘‘low’’ and ‘‘mo...

In these notes, we formally prove that the effort and retention policies that maximize the firm’s profits are independent of realized cash flows. The proof is in two steps. The first step establishes that, in any mechanism that is incentive compatible and sequentially individually rational for the managers, the firm’s expected profits from each manager it hires are given by a formula analogous ...

Cash flows are often modeled using the random geometric growth model (geometric Brownian motion). One of the reasons for using this model is that it is simple to implement and it is a reasonable approximation to random growth cash flows such as stock prices. For this model the volatility of the cash flow grows multiplicatively over time. This multiplicative characteristic is shared by the usual...

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is the most accepted approach for company valuation. It is well grounded in theory and practice. However, the DCF approach, which is commonly used for traditional companies valuation, presents a number of serious weaknesses within the Internet companies’ context. One of these weaknesses is tackling the uncertainty that characterize future cash flows of these companies...

Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) simulates human way of solving problems as it solves a new problem using a successful past experience applied to a similar problem. In this paper we describe a CBR system that performs forecasts for cash flow accounts. Forecasting cash flows to a certain degree of accuracy, is an important aspect of a Working Capital decision support system. Working Capital (WC) manag...

In this paper we present an efficient methodology for approximating the distribution function of the net present value of a series of cash-flows, when the discounting is presented by a stochastic differential equation as in the Vasicek model and in the Ho-Lee model. Upper and lower bounds in convexity order are obtained. The high accuracy of the method is illustrated for cash-flows for which no...

A similar negative correlation between inflation and stock prices prompted Modigliani and Cohn to conjecture that investors are prone to money illusion: they confuse nominal and real interest rates. When that is the case investors mistakenly discount real future cash flows with the nominal interest rate (or alternatively ignore the fact that cash flows tend to grow in nominal terms as inflation...

In order to apply asset-liabilitymanagement techniques to property-liability insurers, the sensitivity of liabilities to interest rate changes, or duration, must be calculated. The current approach is to use the Macaulay or modified duration calculations, both of which presume that the cash flows are invariant with respect to interest rate changes. Based on the structure of liabilities for prop...