We estimate the impact of macroeconomic conditions on childcare market. find that industry is substantially more exposed to business cycle than other low-wage industries and responds strongly negative shocks positive ones. Indeed, employment requires time recover rest economy. Although reduction in supply may pose difficulties for parents, we evidence center quality countercyclical. When unempl...

Abstract We show that pro‐cyclicality is inherent in risk measure estimates based on historical data. Taking the example of VaR, we empirical VaR mean‐reverting over a 1‐year horizon when portfolio held fixed. It means capital requirement rule measurements tends calm times to understate future required and volatile overstate it. To quantify this pro‐cyclicality, develop simple efficient methodo...