The Brexit referendum and the last presidential election in the USA are just two examples of recent vote results that have been wrongly predicted. This research paper aims to identify the formation of voting behaviour to revaluate the necessary factors and variables in the correct and scientific prediction and analysis of voting behaviour. More specifically, this paper chose anti-European votin...

I thank Hanretty and Ford for their comment. They make an interesting point, but I think that this has been over-made recently. The term “size of the denominator population” explains that some population groups are bigger than others and that this matters greatly. The map published with the article shows the number of voters polled in each region, adjusted to remove sampling bias. The proportio...