We consider a general class of imperfectly discriminating contests with privately informed players. We show that findings by Athey (2001) imply the existence of a Bayesian Nash equilibrium in monotone pure strategies. JEL classification: D72, D74, D82, C72

By means of a very simple example, this note illustrates the appeal of using Bayesian rather than classical methods to produce inference on hidden states in models of Markovian regime switching. JEL Classification: C11, C22.

We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, endogenous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd investment stimulate growth, but expectation about future crowds out reduces identify bubbly episodes estimating using US data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that IT housing not only caused booms also lifted GDP almost 2 per...

one of the most important objectives of any economic system is to achieve to low and stable inflation and sustained economic growth. in this study, first, bayesian causal is indentified effective factors on inflation and then using bayesian causal network and determining prior probabilities and posterior probabilities in different scenarios,it is discussed the impacts of this factors on inflati...

We study the updating of beliefs under ambiguity for invariant biseparable preferences. In particular, we show that a natural form of dynamic consistency characterizes the Bayesian updating of these beliefs. JEL classification: D81

Labor Market Institutions, Wages, and Investment Labor market institutions, via their effect on the wage structure, affect the investment decisions of firms in labor markets with frictions. This observation helps explain rising wage inequality in the US, but a relatively stable wage structure in Europe in the 1980s. These different trends are the result of different investment decisions by firm...

The paper investigates the impact on credit risk of capital structure choices driven by firm’s investments and financing decisions. We propose a realistic dynamic structural model featuring endogenous investment, capital structure and default. We calibrate the model on accounting and market data. Using simulation, we find that, credit spreads as well as other standard metrics of credit worthine...

Like other macroeconomic variables, residential investment has become much less volatile since the mid-1980s (recent experience notwithstanding.) This paper explores the role of structural change in this decline. Since the the early 1980s there have been many changes in the underlying structure of the economy, including those in the mortgage market which have made it easier to acquire a home. W...

Equilibrium Unemployment and Investment Under Product and Labour Market Imperfections We study the implications of product market competition and investment for price setting, wage bargaining and thereby for equilibrium unemployment in an economy with product and labour market imperfections. We show that intensified product market competition will reduce equilibrium unemployment, whereas the ef...

This study contributes to the debate on whether China’s domestic enterprises (DEs) have experienced a significant catch-up compared with foreign-funded enterprises (FFEs) in high-tech industries. Our paper tries to estimate a new set of capital stock and R&D capital stock by ownership for China’s high-tech industries. Then, using this newly constructed data set, it assesses the comparative prod...