Problem definition. The impact of lead times on the bullwhip effect produced by order-up-to (OUT) replenishment policy is studied. Practical relevance. Under general auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) demand, we investigate when OUT possesses an always-increasing-in-the-lead-time and it does not. Methodology. A measure based difference between demand order variance combined with a novel anal...

Predicting future probable values of model parameters, is an essential pre-requisite for assessing model decision reliability in an uncertain environment. Scenario Analysis is a methodology for modelling uncertainty in water resources management modelling. Uncertainty if not considered appropriately in decision making will decrease reliability of decisions, especially in long-term planning. One...

ecological changes resulting from climate conditions can severely affect human societies especially in the area of economy and safety. climate catastrophes may cause social and economic tension. forecasting such changes accurately can help the government to control the disasters and to achieve possible benefits (such as water supply in flood). weather forecasting is the application of science a...

With the ever-increasing growth of energy demand and costs, process monitoring operational costs is great importance for industries. In this light, both financial budget management local optimization supposed to be guaranteed properly. To achieve goal, a support vector machine recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) method together with clustering algorithm was developed extract features while ...

In this paper, a new decision support system for demand forecasting DSS_DF is presented. A demand forecast is generated in DSS_DF by combining four forecasts values. Two of them are obtained independently, one by a customer and the other by a market expert. They represent subjective judgments on future demand, given as linguistic values, such as “demand is around a certain value” or “demand is ...

There is need to continuously monitor the conditions of complex, expensive and process-critical machinery in order to detect its incipient breakdown as well as to ensure its high performance and operating safety. Depending on the application, several techniques are available for monitoring the condition of a machine. Vibration monitoring of rotating machinery is considered in this paper so as d...

Guidance system can improve the resources utilization of LBS (Location Based Service) system effectively, and the validity of guidance system depends on accurate predicting of the near-future system resources occupancy and its trend. Considering the strong randomicity of short-term characteristic of the trend, a multi-model fusion method integrating adaptive filter and ARMA (Auto Regressive Mov...

We consider how lead-times create the bullwhip effect in an inventory replenishment system. The inventory system is a combination of a specific demand process, a forecasting method, and a replenishment policy. Previous studies have evaluated the bullwhip effect when some of the system parameters such the forecasting model, demand process, or the lead-time are changed. This type of analyses has ...

Target tracking is usually a challenging application for wireless sensor networks (WSNs) because it is always computation-intensive and requires real-time processing. This paper proposes a practical target tracking system based on the auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model in a distributed peer-to-peer (P2P) signal processing framework. In the proposed framework, wireless sensor nodes act ...