نتایج جستجو برای: assessing uncertainty of climate change models

تعداد نتایج: 21306544  

پایان نامه :وزارت علوم، تحقیقات و فناوری - دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد - دانشکده مهندسی 1389

abstract type-ii fuzzy logic has shown its superiority over traditional fuzzy logic when dealing with uncertainty. type-ii fuzzy logic controllers are however newer and more promising approaches that have been recently applied to various fields due to their significant contribution especially when the noise (as an important instance of uncertainty) emerges. during the design of type- i fuz...

Journal: :Statistical Science 2003

2016
Michael Oppenheimer Christopher M. Little Roger M. Cooke

445 Managing the risks of climate change requires a consistent and comprehensive approach to quantifying uncertainty and a clear narrative to describe the process. As economist Charles Kolstad noted, such efforts are neither new nor confined to the climate arena: “Uncertainty affects many different kinds of agents in the world — including governments — and there are a whole host of instruments ...

Journal: :Int. J. Approx. Reasoning 2005
Elmar Kriegler Hermann Held

We apply belief functions to an analysis of future climate change. It is shown that the lower envelope of a set of probabilities bounded by cumulative probability distributions is a belief function. The large uncertainty about natural and socioeconomic factors influencing estimates of future climate change is quantified in terms of bounds on cumulative probability. This information is used to c...

Journal: :Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 2007
V Pope S Brown R Clark M Collins W Collins C Dearden J Gunson G Harris C Jones A Keen J Lowe M Ringer C Senior S Sitch M Webb S Woodward

Predictions of future climate change require complex computer models of the climate system to represent the full range of processes and interactions that influence climate. The Met Office Hadley Centre uses 'families' of models as part of the Met Office Unified Model Framework to address different classes of problems. The HadGEM family is a suite of state-of-the-art global environment models th...

2017
Valerie Steen Helen R Sofaer Susan K Skagen Andrea J Ray Barry R Noon

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and wheth...

1998
Mort Webster Andrei Sokolov

Uncertainties in projections of future climate change caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations have been a subject of intensive study in recent years. However, in most cases, uncertainties in parameters and characteristics of models used to obtain those projections, such as climate sensitivity or radiative forcing, are described only by ranges of possible values. The resulting unc...

2011
N. W. Arnell

This paper assesses the relationship between amount of climate forcing – as indexed by global mean temperature change – and hydrological response in a sample of UK catchments. It constructs climate scenarios representing different changes in global mean temperature from an ensemble of 21 climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4. The results show a considerable range in impact between the 21 clim...

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