This paper proposes a simple direct testing procedure to distinguish a linear unit root process from a globally stationary three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive process. We derive the asymptotic null distribution of the Wald statistic, and show that it does not depend on unknown fixed threshold values. Monte Carlo evidence clearly indicates that the exponential average of the Wald...

This paper proposes a new methodology to build composite coincident and leading indexes. Based on a formal definition that requires that the first differences of the leading index is the best linear predictor of the first differences of the coincident index, it is shown that the notion of polynomial serial correlation common features can be used to build these composite variables. Concepts and ...

The Enders and Granger (1998) unit-root test against stationary alternatives with asymmetric adjustment is applied to the extended Nelson and Plosser dataset. The test rejects the unit-root null roughly as frequently as does the ADF test. JEL Classification C32, E32 * Correspondence: Philip Rothman Department of Economics East Carolina University Greenville, NC 27858 Phone: 252-328-6151 Fax: 25...

t he relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental empirical issue in macroeconomics. in this research, by using a multivariate garch-in-mean var, we try to investigate direct effects of uncertainty of oil price on macroeconomics of iran by using annually data from 1965 to 2013.results show that uncertainty about oil prices had a negative and signific...

abstract this study uses annual data over the period 2005-2014 and the panel vecm approach to examine financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness in africa. the study shows that financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness are linked by a set of long-run relationships. policy reaction to the positive financial inclusion shock is not significant. policy reaction to the positiv...

In this paper we propose a new set of multivariate stochastic models that capture time varying seasonality within the vector innovations structural time series (VISTS) framework. These models encapsulate exponential smoothing methods in a multivariate setting. The models considered are the local level, local trend and damped trend VISTS models with an additive multivariate seasonal component. W...

This paper proposes a reduced rank regression framework for constructing coincident and leading indexes. Based on a formal definition that requires that the first differences of the leading index are the best linear predictor of the first differences of the coincident index, it is shown that the notion of polynomial serial correlation common features can be used to build these composite variabl...

This paper assesses the day of the week effect of the daily depreciation of the Turkish lira (TL) against the US dollar (USD) and its volatility. The empirical evidence from Turkey presented here suggests that Thursdays are associated with higher and Mondays with lower depreciation rates compared to those of Wednesdays. Moreover, Mondays and Tuesdays are associated with higher volatility than W...

This paper uses Granger non–causality tests to analyze if channel competition exists between the companion websites of 93 German newspapers observed between I/1998 and II/2005. It provides econometric evidence for significant negative effects of companion website traffic on the print circulation of national newspapers and for significantly positive effects on local newspapers, at least for the ...

this paper presents the application of multivariate time series model (ardl) to investigate factors affecting bread waste and to explore the relationships among shortrun, longrun and error correction coefficient and the independent variables over the period 1978-2006. results reveal that gross national product and urbanization have positive effects on bread waste in the long term, while the bre...