In this paper, we study the fractal characteristics of the futures market. We take the empirical study on London Gold Futures yield by Rescaled Range Analysis, analyzing the fractal characteristics of the futures market. We further determine fractal characteristics and the structure of the nonlinear time series through random disturb the original time series observation sequence. The result of ...

Using intra-day data, this paper investigates the contribution to the price discovery of Euro and Japanese Yen exchange rates in three foreign exchange markets based on electronic trading systems: the CME GLOBEX regular futures, E-mini futures, and the EBS interdealer spot market. Contrary to evidence in equity markets and more recent evidence in foreign exchange markets, the spot market is fou...

With the development of global market and information network, international futures markets have become integrated. Price fluctuation of one futures market may cause related price fluctuation in another exchange. Many researches have shown that there is high correlation between international and domestic futures price fluctuation. However, quantitative research and the information system for a...

Agricultural commodity futures prices play a significant role in the change tendency of these spot prices and the supply–demand relationship of global agricultural product markets. Due to the nonlinear and nonstationary nature of this kind of time series data, it is inevitable for price forecasting research to take this nature into consideration. Therefore, we aim to enrich the existing researc...

In this paper, based on a description of the four major players of commodity spot and futures markets, we establish a multi-phase equilibrium model of price determination, and then analyze the influence of the entry of a large number of index investors on the risk premium, inventory management, and different traders’ positions of commodity futures. The result shows that, the correlation between...

This analysis examines a simultaneous estimation option-based approach to forecast futures prices in the presence of daily price limit moves. The procedure explicitly allows for changing implied volatilities by estimating the implied futures price and the implied volatility simultaneously. Using 15 years of futures and futures options data for three agricultural commodities, we find that the si...

The aim of this article is to examine the presence of volatility transmission between futures index and underlying stock index by using intraday data in Turkey. We first examined the sudden changes in the variance of futures index return and the underlying spot index return. Then we employed the causality in the variance tests proposed by Hong (2001) and Hafner and Herwartz (2006). According to...

In this work, an investigation and analysis are carried out in order to observe the relationship between ethanol spot and futures prices in Brazil. We adopted the Engle and Granger co-integration approach. Also, we consider the information share method proposed by Hasbrouck in order to examine the market efficiency in price discovery and information transmission. Results show that although the ...