When corporations, news media and advocacy organizations embrace networked information technology, intentionally or unintentionally, they influence democratic processes. To capture and understand the influence of publicly available electronic content, the US Election 2004 Web Monitor tracked the online coverage of US presidential candidates, and investigated how this coverage reflected their po...

This paper shows that in the almost four decades from January 1965 through to December 2003, US stock prices closely followed the four-year Presidential Election Cycle. In general, stock prices fell during the first half of a Presidency, reached a trough in the second year, rose during the second half of a Presidency, and reached a peak in the third or fourth year. This cyclical trend is found ...

Gender in the 2016 US Presidential Election: Trump, Clinton, and Media DiscourseDustin Harp (2019)New York: Routledge, 192 pp.

There are three major strategies to form neural network ensembles. The simplest one is the Cross Validation strategy in which all members are trained with the same training data. Bagging and boosting strategies pro-duce perturbed sample from training data. This paper provides an ideal model based on two important factors: activation function and number of neurons in the hidden layer and based u...

I present a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model that enables early and accurate prediction of U.S. presidential election outcomes at the state level. The method systematically combines information from historical forecasting models in real time with results from the large number of state-level opinion surveys that are released publicly during the campaign. The result is a set of forecasts that a...

Conventional maps of election results can give a misleading picture of the popular support that candidates have because population is highly non-uniform and equal areas on a map may not correspond to equal numbers of voters. Taking the example of the 2004 United States presidential election, we show how this problem can be corrected using a cartogram—a map in which the sizes of regions such as ...

Although, there exists numerous literature on the procedure for forecasting or predicting election results, in Ghana only opinion poll strategies have been used. To fill this gap, the paper develops Markov chain models for forecasting the 2016 presidential election results at the Regional, Zonal (i.e. Savannah, Coastal and Forest) and the National levels using past presidential election results...

We investigate a set of discrete-spin statistical physics models for opinion spread in social networks and explore how suitable they are for predicting real-world belief change on both the individual and group levels. Our studies center on the degree and rate of consensus formation in inhomogeneous models that take into account different individual preferences or set beliefs. We investigate the...