Recent work suggests VAR models of output, inflation, and interest rates may be prone to instabilities. In the face of such instabilities, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts from a VAR. The uncertainty inherent in any single representation of instability could mean that combining forecasts from a range of approaches will improve for...

We derive forecasts for Markov switching models that are optimal in the MSFE sense by means of weighting observations. We provide analytic expressions of the weights conditional on the Markov states and conditional on state probabilities. This allows us to study the e↵ect of uncertainty around states on forecasts. It emerges that, even in large samples, forecasting performance increases substan...

Using simulation and analysis we show that agent-based auction-cleared automated markets can be stabilized using only completely myopic agents (without value traders), if these naı̈ve agents are provided with a price signal that reflects order book information. This demonstrates that information in the order book is extremely valuable, that prediction can be replaced by better instantaneous info...

E12/E47 proteins (encoded by E2A gene) are members of the class I basic helix-loop-helix (bHLH) transcription factors (also known as E proteins). E47 has been described as repressor of E-cadherin and inducer of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). We reported previously that EMT mediated by E47 in MDCK cells occurs with a concomitant overexpression of Id1 and Id3 proteins. Id proteins belon...

هدف از این پژوهش اعتبار سنجی پرسشنامه جدید ۴ عاملی سیستم خود انگیزشی زبان دوم بعنوان یکی عوامل تاثیرگذار بر یادگیری انگلیسی بوده است. در تحقیق طرح پیمایشی به شیوه ی الگوی معادلات ساختاری نوع تحلیل تأییدی استفاده شده تعداد ۵۹۹ نفر (۳۰۸ دانشجوی خانم و ۲۹۱ آقا) سطح پیش متوسطه رده سنی ۲۵-۱۸سال که دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی – واحد تهران شرق رشته های مختلف تحصیلی مشغول تحصیل می باشند، شرکت کردند. آنجائیکه ا...

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In ...

This paper applies the hybrid dynamic general-equilibrium, vector autoregressive (DGE-VAR) model developed by Ireland (1999) to Canadian time series. It presents the first Canadian evidence that a hybrid DGE-VAR model may have better out-of-sample forecasting accuracy than a simple, structure-free VAR model. The evidence suggests that estimated DGE models have the potential to add good forecast...