abstract oil export revenues have a major share in both iranian government incomes and gross domestic product (gdp). with regard to the importance of agricultural sector in economic growth, rural development and rural welfare improvement, this sector indubitably influenced by temporary and unexpected shocks in oil export. therefore we employed feder(1982) and auto-regressive distributed lag (ar...

in this paper, the effect of financial liberalization on household’s budget liquidity constraint is analyzed with the use of an error correction model. financial liberalization will decline liquidity constraint, with expanding means of making future incomes available for present consumption. here a financial liberalization index for iran is defined using principal component analysis technique, ...

this paper aims to investigate the role of each aggregate spending component in the monetary policy transmission in indonesia. it assesses the relative strength of the role of each spending component in the monetary policy transmission. in so doing, this study employs the contribution analysis, which is calculated based on the cumulative impulse response of each component of gdp to a monetary p...

This paper aims to investigate the role of each aggregate spending component in the monetary policy transmission in Indonesia. It assesses the relative strength of the role of each spending component in the monetary policy transmission. In so doing, this study employs the contribution analysis, which is calculated based on the cumulative impulse response of each component of GDP to a monetary p...

In the exponential smoothing approach to forecasting, restrictions are often imposed on the smoothing parameters which ensure that certain components are exponentially weighted averages. In this paper, a new general restriction is derived on the basis that the one-step ahead prediction error can be decomposed into permanent and transient components. It is found that this general restriction red...

In this article we provide a review of the literature with respect to the e$cient markets hypothesis and chaos. In doing so, we contrast the martingale behavior of asset prices to nonlinear chaotic dynamics, discuss some recent techniques used in distinguishing between probabilistic and deterministic behavior in asset prices, and report some evidence. Moreover, we look at the controversies that...

Most econometric methods for testing the proposition of long-run monetary neutrality rely on the assumption that money and real output do not cointegrate. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that a violation of the noncointegration assumption is likely to result in a nonrejection of the neutrality proposition. To alleviate thi...

This paper establishes analytically what the asymptotic behavior of the DickeyFuller coefficient tests and the Dickey-Fuller t-statistic tests will be when the true data-generating process is a trigonometric function of an integrated process. Using some recently established limit theorems, it is shown that for such a data generating process, the asymptotic behavior of these unit root tests is r...

In this paper, we consider the role of “leads” of the first difference of integrated variables in the dynamic OLS estimation of cointegrating regression models. Specifically, we investigate Stock and Watson’s (1993) claim that the role of leads is related to the concept of Granger causality by a Monte Carlo simulation. From the simulation results, we find that the dynamic OLS estimator without ...