BACKGROUND Heat wave and health warning systems are activated based on forecasts of health-threatening hot weather. OBJECTIVE We estimated heat-mortality associations based on forecast and observed weather data in Detroit, Michigan, and compared the accuracy of forecast products for predicting heat waves. METHODS We derived and compared apparent temperature (AT) and heat wave days (with hea...

The butterfly universe photo was made using water sprayed on glass that had been treated with Dupont’s Rain X, which allows the droplets to be much larger than normal. The droplets become wide-angle lenses when you place an object underneath the sprayed glass. The droplets are then photographed with a macro lens. In this picture, I placed an 8 10 photo of a monarch butterfly underneath the glas...

We present the application of interactive threedimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the...

Forecast ensembles typically show a spread-skill relationship, but they are also often underdispersive, and therefore uncalibrated. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical postprocessing method for forecast ensembles that generates calibrated probabilistic forecast products for weather quantities at individual sites. This paper introduces the Spatial BMA technique, which combines BMA an...

MeteoAssert, a system developed at the Forecast System Laboratory, analyzes gridded data sets and produces descriptions, organized sets of assertions representing the content of weather messages. Each assertion conveys a single weather characteristic with a certain spatial and temporal scope. The assertions in a description are linked by discourse relations that predetermine the structure of th...

Density forecasts for weather variables are useful for the many industries exposed to weather risk. Weather ensemble predictions are generated from atmospheric models and consist of multiple future scenarios for a weather variable. The distribution of the scenarios can be used as a density forecast, which is needed for pricing weather derivatives. We consider one to 10 dayahead density forecast...

1. Introduction Many of the recent conflicts where the United States (US) military forces have been deployed are regions that contain complex terrain (i.e. Korea, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and northern Iraq). Accurate weather forecasts are critical to the success of operations in these regions and are typically supplied by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models like the US Navy NOGAPS, CAOMPS, an...

An important field of weather observation is the statement of cloud cover of the sky. Clouds not only are significant for the daily weather forecast but also are important for energetic calculations of atmospheric

The forecasting of the passage of wind changes associated with dry cold fronts is vital to safe firefighting operations in southeastern Australia (Cheney et al. 2001), and the issuing of ‘Wind Change Forecast Charts’ is an important part of the Victorian, South Australian and New South Wales Regional Forecast Centres’ fire weather forecast product suite. While weather radars are most commonly u...