Recursive subspace model identification (RSMI) has been developed for a decade. Most of RSMIs are only applied for open loop data. In this paper, we propose a new recursive subspace model identification which can be applied under open loop and closed loop data. The key technique of this derivation of the proposed algorithm is to bring the Vector Auto Regressive with eXogenous input (VARX) model...

Abstrak
 Salah satu penyumbang pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia adalah sektor pariwisata. Menurut asalnya wisatawan dibagi menjadi dua yaitu lokal dan mancanegara. Kunjungan mancanegara ke mengalami fluktuaktif setiap bulannya. kedatangannya, yang masuk melalui jalur udara, laut, darat. COVID-19 memberikan dampak terhadap Diduga bahwa mempengaruhi kedatangan Tujuan dari penelitian ini me...

There is a crisis in multilateralism.  No major new binding rules relating to international commerce have come into force in more than 20 years.  Demands by some nations for rules in new areas are not being met. The negotiations in the WTO of trade rules and the negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to devise rules restricting the annual emissions of greenhouse ga...

The profitability of chartist trading rules on foreign exchange markets is still under debate. Since simple technical trading rules may not adequately capture the complex phenomenon of chartist trading, this paper focuses on the prominent head-and-shoulder pattern as a representative trading rule which incorporates various „technical“ ideas such as smoothed trends, trend reversal, resistance le...

This paper asks why Argentina slipped into a deep crisis with its currency board (CB) arrangement though this regime had received so much academic support as a stabilisation device. It is argued that a CB does not make devaluation risks disappear but translates them into an explosive, strongly pro-cyclical mixture of exchange rate, financial system and default risk which might trap a country in...

abstract oil export revenues have a major share in both iranian government incomes and gross domestic product (gdp). with regard to the importance of agricultural sector in economic growth, rural development and rural welfare improvement, this sector indubitably influenced by temporary and unexpected shocks in oil export. therefore we employed feder(1982) and auto-regressive distributed lag (ar...

What explains the central role of dollar in world trade? Will US currency retain its dominant status future? This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium framework with endogenous choice that can address these questions. Complementarities price setting and input-output linkages across firms generate complementarities making exporters coordinate on same invoicing. The is more likely to...

I provide a framework for understanding the global financial architecture as an equilibrium outcome of the risk sharing between countries with different levels of financial development. The country that has the most developed financial sector takes on a larger proportion of global fundamental and financial risk because its financial intermediaries are better able to deal with funding problems f...

Large differences in national price levels exist across countries. In this paper, I develop a general equilibrium model predicting that these differences should be related to countries’ exchange rate regimes. My empirical findings confirm that countries with fixed exchange rate regimes have higher national price levels than countries with flexible regimes. At the disaggregate level, the relatio...

Three channels through which the IMF rescue package may affect international lending can be distinguished: debtor-side moral hazard, creditor-side moral hazard, and debtor and creditorsidemoral hazard.We show that if the rescue package fully benefits the debtor, no credit contract between him and the creditor arises. The other two kinds of moral hazard, where the creditor receives the rescue pa...