We establish the validity of subsampling confidence intervals for the mean of a dependent series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. Using point process theory, we study both linear and nonlinear GARCH-like time series models. We propose a data-dependent method for the optimal block size selection and investigate its performance by means of a simulation study. JEL CLASSIFICATION NOS: C10,...

This note solves the puzzle of estimating degenerate Wishart Autoregressive processes, introduced by Gourieroux, Jasiak and Sufana (2009) to model multivariate stochastic volatility. It derives the asymptotic and empirical properties of the Method of Moment estimator of the Wishart degrees of freedom subject to different stationarity assumptions and specific distributional settings of the under...

abstract in this paper, income per capita convergence hypothesis is tested in selected oic countries. for this purpose, we use the time series model and univariate kpss stationary test with multiple structural breaks (carrion-i-silvestre et al. (2005)) over the period 1950-2008. the results show that most oic countries could not catch up toward usa. although because of some positive term of tra...

This note provides a proof of Granger's (1986) error correction model for fractionally cointegrated variables and points out a necessary assumption that has not been noted before. Moreover, a simpler, alternative error correction model is proposed which can be employed to estimate fractionally cointegrated systems in three steps. JEL Classification Code: C32

It is well-know that estimation by reduced rank regression is given by the solution to a generalized eigenvalue problem. This paper presents a new proof to establish this result and provides additional insight into the structure of the estimation problem. The proof is a direct algebraic proof that some might find more intuitive than existing proofs. JEL Classification: C3, C32

A Bayesian Analysis of a Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns We apply Bayesian methods to study a common VAR-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy which involves expressing beliefs about the components...

This paper proposes dynamic copula and marginals functions to model the joint distribution of risk factor returns affecting portfolios profit and loss distribution over a specified holding period. By using copulas, we can separate the marginal distributions from the dependence structure and estimate portfolio Value-at-Risk, assuming for the risk factors a multivariate distribution that can be d...

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper we propose general-to-specific model selection procedures to overcome these limitations. After showing that single-equation ...

Article history: Received 11 January 2006 Received in revised form 31 July 2008 Accepted 1 August 2008 Available online 6 August 2008 This paper considers the problem of model uncertainty in the case of multi-asset volatility models and discusses the use of model averaging techniques as away of dealing with the risk of inadvertently using false models in portfolio management. Evaluation of vola...

abstract this paper attempts to re-investigate the catching-up (stochastic convergence) hypothesis among the selected 16 oecd countries applying the time series approach of convergence hypothesis with annual data over one century. to reach this aim, we propose a model which specifies a trend function, incorporating both types of structural breaks – that is, sharp breaks and smooth shifts using ...