The long-term goals of this project, which is being pursued in collaboration with R. L. Elsberry and M. A. Boothe, are to improve not only the quantitative accuracy of official tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts, but also the qualitative meteorological utility of those forecasts. Needed improvements in the accuracy of official TC track forecasts include: (i) reducing the severity and frequen...

BACKGROUND The Gulf coastal ecosystems in Florida are foci of the highest species richness of imperiled shoreline dependent birds in the USA. However environmental processes that affect their macroecological patterns, like occupancy and abundance, are not well unraveled. In Florida the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) is resident along northern and western white sandy estuarine/oc...

The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to point out and correct several misconceptions about the putative WISHE mechanism of tropical cyclone intensification that currently are being taught to atmospheric science students, to tropical weather forecasters, and to laypeople who seek to understand how tropical cyclones intensify. The mechanism relates to the simplest problem of an in...

The authors review an emerging paradigm of tropical cyclone intensification in the context of the prototype intensification problem, which relates to the spinup of a preexisting vortex near tropical storm strength in a quiescent environment. In addition, the authors review briefly what is known about tropical cyclone intensification in the presence of vertical wind shear. The authors go on to e...

We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage i...

Because ocean color alters the absorption of sunlight, it can produce changes in sea surface temperatures with further impacts on atmospheric circulation. These changes can project onto fields previously recognized to alter the distribution of tropical cyclones. If the North Pacific subtropical gyre contained no absorbing and scattering materials, the result would be to reduce subtropical cyclo...

Here I use a simple numerical model of reef profile evolution to show that the presentday morphology of carbonate islands has developed largely in response to late Pleistocene sea level oscillations in addition to variable vertical motion and reef accretion rates. In particular, large amplitude 'ice-house' sea-level variability resulted in long lagoonal depositional hiatuses, producing the morp...

Numerical simulations of a tropical-like cyclone in southern Italy have been performed with two different modelling systems (BOLAM-MOLOCH and WRF) with the aim of discussing the role of the surface fluxes in the development of the vortex and evaluating their intensity during the mature stage of the cyclone. Although significant differences emerge in their intensity, both the modelling systems a...

Our long term fundamental goals are 1) to develop a movable multiply nested mesh ocean model and investigate its application for air-sea interaction studies on the mesoscale, 2) to study coupled air-sea processes at very high wind speeds, 3) to investigate the capability of coupled tropical cyclone ocean models for improving predictions of the ocean response and tropical cyclone evolution, and ...

Midlevel ventilation, or the flux of low-entropy air into the inner core of a tropical cyclone (TC), is a hypothesized mechanism by which environmental vertical wind shear can constrain a tropical cyclone’s intensity. An idealized framework based on steadiness, axisymmetry, and slantwise neutrality is developed to assess how ventilation affects tropical cyclone intensity via two possible pathwa...