Traffic flow is widely recognized as an important parameter for road traffic state forecasting. Fuzzy state transform and Kalman filter (KF) have been applied in this field separately. But the studies show that the former method has good performance on the trend forecasting of traffic state variation but always involves several numerical errors. The latter model is good at numerical forecasting...

conclusions applying this information can be useful to policy makers and managers for planning and implementing special interventions to prevent and limit future accidental deaths. background traffic accidents are the main cause of deaths in developing countries. fatalities due to traffic accidents are assessed through a three-year time series forecast. objectives the aim of this study is to us...

BACKGROUND Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. OBJECTIVES This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next y...

Damped trend exponential smoothing models have gained importance in empirical studies due to their remarkable forecasting performance. This paper derives their theoretical forecast error variance, based on the implied ARIMA model, as algebraic function of the structural parameters. As a consequence, the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) forecasts as well as the h-step ahead theoretical forecast...

Current forecasting software can be problematic in its level of integration with Microsoft Excel forecasting models. Standalone forecasting software operates in a batch mode with Excel and is impossible to run interactively without custom programming. Excel forecasting add-ins are designed to work within Excel and can be automated to use with forecasting models, but lack support for damped tren...

In order to carry out the functions and authorities of local governments in form implementing fiscal authority, regions must be able recognize potential identify resources they have. Forecasting is an art science predicting future events. The Regional Financial Asset Management Agency (BPKAD) Asahan Regency does not yet know Revenue upcoming period & available a system that can calculate fo...

Analysis of the characteristics of agricultural product price volatility and trend forecasting are necessary to formulate and implement agricultural price control policies. Taking wholesale cabbage prices as an example, a multiple test methodology has been adopted to identify the nonlinearity, fractality, and chaos of the data. The approaches used include the R/S analysis, the BDS test, the pow...