In this paper graphical modelling is used to select a sparse structure for a multivariate time series model of New Zealand interest rates. In particular, we consider a recursive structural vector autoregressions that can subsequently be described parsimoniously by a directed acyclic graph, which could be given a causal interpretation. A comparison between competing models is then made by consid...

This paper investigates whether codependence restrictions can be uniquely imposed on VAR and VEC models via the so-called pseudo-structural form used in the literature. Codependence of order q is given if a linear combination of autocorrelated variables eliminates the serial correlation after q lags. Importantly, maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood ratio testing are only possible if th...

This paper is an attempt to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on output in Indonesia using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methodology for the period 1983:1 – 2010:1. We use contemporaneous restriction and follow Blanchard and Perotti (1999) technique to identify structural fiscal policy shocks in Indonesia. The estimation results show that the government spending shocks are found...

We review, under a historical perspective, the developement of the problem of nonfundamentalness of Moving Average (MA) representations of economic models, starting from the work by Hansen and Sargent [1980]. Nonfundamentalness typically arises when agents’ information space is larger than the econometrican’s one. Therefore it is impossible for the latter to use standard econometric techniques,...

The objective of this paper is to apply the method developed in Garratt, Lee, Pesaran, and Shin (2000) to build a structural model for Germany with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation. The modelling strategy consists of a set of long-run structural relationships suggested by economic theory and an otherwise unrestricted VAR model. It turns out that we can rebuild the structure o...

In this paper we investigate the effect of oil price shocks on stock market index in Iran, by using of a structural VAR (SVAR) approach. We used four variables in the model namely Kilian index, global oil supply, real oil price and real stock market index. The data are monthly and spanning the period 1997M10-2014M12. We identify the effect of four different shocks on stock market including oil ...

We analyse the evolution of the Indian economy over the past six decades, particularly identifying structural breaks. We find that usually there has been a gradual change in the indicators of the economy .The growth rate of per capita GDP after falling in the decade mid 60s to mid 70s has been accelerating gradually since then. Since 1991 exports have played an important role in this growth. Th...

In this note we consider the treatment of structural breaks in VAR models used to test for unit roots and cointegration. We give practical guidelines for the inclusion and the specification of intervention dummies in those models. JEL Classification Code: C32, C52, E43.

This paper estimates a structural VAR model of U.S. consumer and world commodity prices. An equiproportional long-run response of nominal price levels to amonetary shock yields identifying restrictions. Exogenous innovations tomonetary policy account for a sizable share of the co-movement of these series, including during episodes more commonly attributed to “supply shocks.” JEL Categories: C32...

The U.S. shale revolution, using new technologies to extract crude oil, has led dynamics in the supply side of global oil market. We ask whether revolution dampened role geopolitical risk price volatility. extend a reduced form Structural Break Threshold Vector Autoregressive (SBT-VAR) model structural SBT-VAR and identify innovations by allowing conditional heteroskedasticity. Compared with co...