It is shown that the sample paths of Poisson shot noise with heavy-tailed semiexponential distributions satisfy a large deviation principle with a rate function that is insensitive to the shot shape. This demonstrates that, on the scale of large deviations, paths to rare events do not depend on the shot shape.

Abstra t. Early risk predi tion involves three di erent aspe ts to be onsidered when an automati lassi er is implemented for this task: a) support for lassi ation with partial information read up to di erent time steps, b) support for dealing with unbalan ed data sets and ) a poli y to de ide when a do ument ould be lassi ed as belonging to the relevant lass with a reasonable on den e. In this ...

Most juridical systems contain the principle that an act is only unlawful if the agent conducting the act has a `guilty mind' (`mens rea'). Different law systems distinguish di erent modes of mens rea. For instance, American law distinguishes between `knowingly' performing a criminal act, `recklessness', `strict liability', etc. I will show we can formalize several of these categories. The form...

In many real world applications, systematic analysis of rare events, such as credit card frauds and adverse drug reactions, is very important. Their low occurrence rate in large databases often makes it difficult to identify the risk factors from straightforward application of associations and sequential pattern discovery. In this paper we introduce a heuristic to guide the search for interesti...

Suppose that the integers are assigned i.i.d. random variables f! x g (taking values in the unit interval), which serve as an environment. This environment deenes a random walk fX n g (called a RWRE) which, when at x, moves one step to the right with probability ! x , and one step to the left with probability 1 ? ! x. Solomon (1975) determined the almost-sure asymptotic speed v (=rate of escape...

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The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes ('extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These l...

Introduction: Since the 1950s, air travel has grown exponentially. In 2018, the number of international air passengers was estimated at 4.1 billion. Air travel exposes the passenger to a number of constraints (like physical constraints, stress) that can be correlated and lead to an inflight medical event, especially for passengers with chronic conditions or fragile health.<br /...

background: due to the increasing number of stressful life events among the elderly and the rapid spread of diabetes among them, the present study compared the stressful life events of diabetic elderly with those of non-diabetic elderly. materials and methods: this descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted on 240 senior citizens of over 60 years of age (120 diabetic patients and 120 non-...