Crude Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is the most robust and easily implemented method for performing time-variant reliability analysis (TRA). However, it inefficient, especially high problems. This paper aims to present a random called multilevel (MLMC) TRA enhance computational efficiency of crude MCS while maintaining its accuracy robustness. The proposed first discretizes time interval interes...

Fatigue failure is the typical failure mode of mechanical components subjected to random loadtime history. It is important to ensure that the mechanical components have an expected life with a high reliability. However, it is difficult to reduce the influence of factors that affect the fatigue reliability and thus a reliability sensitivity analysis is necessary. An approach of fatigue reliabili...

Short term prediction of traffic flow is one of the most essential elements of all proactive traffic control systems. Although various methodologies have been applied to forecast traffic parameters, several researchers have showed that compared with the individual methods, hybrid methods provide more accurate results . These results made the hybrid tools and approaches a more common method for ...

In structural reliability analysis, simulation methods are widely used. The statistical characteristics of failure probability estimate these have been well investigated. this study, the sensitivities and its with regard to sample, called ‘contribution indexes’, proposed measure contribution sample. indexes in four methods, i.e., Monte Carlo (MCS), importance sampling (IS), line (LS) subset (SS...