We consider the problem of deciding the best action time when observations are made sequentially. Specifically we address a special type of optimal stopping problem where observations are made from state-contingent distributions and there exists uncertainty on the state. In this paper, the decision-maker's belief on state is revised sequentially based on the previous observations. By using the ...

We introduce a new sequential algorithm for making robust predictions in the presence of changepoints. Unlike many previous approaches [1], which focus on the problem of detecting and locating changepoints, our algorithm focuses on the problem of making predictions even when such changes might be present. We introduce nonstationary covariance functions to be used in Gaussian process prediction ...

In [6] a general notion of perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE) for extensive-form games was introduced and shown to be intermediate between subgame-perfect equilibrium and sequential equilibrium. Besides sequential rationality, the ingredients of the proposed notion are (1) the existence of a plausibility order on the set of histories that rationalizes the given assessment and (2) the notion of ...

to compare different qtl mapping methods, a population with genotypic and phenotypic data was simulated. in bayesian approach, all information of markers can be used along with combination of distributions of snp markers. it is assumed that most of the markers (95%) have minor effects and a few numbers of markers (5%) exert major effects. the simulated population included a basic population of ...

Abstract Many real-world problems require one to estimate parameters of interest, in a Bayesian framework, from data that are collected sequentially time. Conventional methods for sampling posterior distributions, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo cannot efficiently address they do not take advantage the data’s sequential structure. To this end, which seek update distribution whenever new collec...

INTRODUCTION Randomised clinical trials (RCTs) have been used to compare and evaluate different types of mesh fixation usually employed to repair open inguinal hernia. However, there is no consensus among surgeons on the best type of mesh fixation method to obtain optimal results. The choice often depends on surgeons' personal preference. This study aims to compare different types of mesh fixat...

Bayesian modeling method and slice analysis techniques show good effect in cycle-accurate power analysis of combinational circuit. In this paper, we use virtual signal logical depth assignment to resolve the problem that signal loop can not be sliced in sequential circuits. With this method, we build cycle-accurate power model based on Bayesian inference and slice analysis techniques. The exper...

Time series—data accompanied with a sequential ordering—occur and evolve all around us. Analysing time series is the problem of trying to discern and describe a pattern in the sequential data that develops in a logical way as the series continues, and the study of sequential data has occurred for a long period across a vast array of fields, including signal processing, bioinformatics, and finan...

The use of the conjugacy property for members of the exponential family of distributions is commonplace within Bayesian statistical analysis, allowing for tractable and simple solutions to problems of inference. However, despite a shared motivation, there has been little previous development of a similar property for using utility functions within a Bayesian decision analysis. As such, this art...