The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve forecasts, it is crucial to set up benchmarks, clarify limitations posed by initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large ensembles, lim...

The fishery for American lobster is currently the highest-valued commercial fishery in the United States, worth over US$620 million in dockside value in 2015. During a marine heat wave in 2012, the fishery was disrupted by the early warming of spring ocean temperatures and subsequent influx of lobster landings. This situation resulted in a price collapse, as the supply chain was not prepared fo...

The atmospheric extra-tropical flow is characterized as chaotic motions that are sensitive to initial conditions and thus is merely predictable by operational weather forecast models 2 weeks in advance given the current observational and modelling accuracy (e.g., Lorenz 1969; Leith 1971; Tribbia and Baumhefner 2004). On the other hand, the seasonal and inter-annual variations in the extra-tropi...

The present work focuses on results from the second phase of development of a forecast system for coastal circulation in the Mississippi Sound and surrounding embayments in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The basis of the forecast system is the 3-D finite element model, ADCIRC, driven by tides, river inflow, and wind. Sensitivity of the forecast model to wind stress and offshore boundary forcing ...

Extended-range (<35 day) predictions of area-averaged convection over northern Australia are investigated with the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). Hindcasts from 1980-2011 are used, initialized on the 1st, 11th, and 21st of each month, with a 33-member ensemble. The measure of convection is outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) averaged over the box ...

This study provides a comprehensive comparison of the performance of the commonly used econometric and time-series models in forecasting seasonal tourism demand. The empirical study is carried out based on the demand for outbound leisure tourism by UK residents to seven destination countries: Australia, Canada, France, Greece, Italy, Spain and the USA. In the modelling exercise, the seasonality...