We put forward a general equilibrium model that links the cross-section variation of expected returns to …rms’life cycle dynamics. In the model all assets have the same exposure to short-run consumption risks, but di¤er in their exposure to long-run consumption risks (Bansal and Yaron (2004)). An econometrician who uses conditional CAPM regression to predict asset returns will obtain higher for...

We investigate the impact of measures of uncertainty on firms’ capital investment behavior using a panel of U.S. firms. Increases in firmspecific and CAPM -based measures have a significant negative effect on investment spending, while market-based uncertainty has a positive impact.

the purpose of this research is investigation of application of the arbitrage pricing theory and effect of unanticipated changes in a set of macroeconomic variables such as inflation rate, money supply, exchange rate, oil price, term structure and industrial production on expected security return in tehran stock exchange. in this research, data are analyzed quarterly for the period of 1997-2008...

I model a scenario in which investors do not know the payoff distributions of relatively newer firms and use the payoff distribution of similar well-established firms as starting points. The starting distributions are then adjusted for size, volatility, and other differences. Anchoring bias (Tversky and Kahneman (1974)) implies that such adjustments typically fall short. I show that adjusting c...

Can consumption growth risk (or consumption beta) serve a better measure of risk than market beta? This paper answers this question by testing and comparing the performance of the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and consumption-based CAPM (CCAPM) across seven financial market sub-sectors in the emerging Taiwan stock market. The empirical performance of the CAPM is encouraging. Th...

In this paper we take up Bayesian inference for the consumption capital asset pricing model. The model has several econometric complications. First, it implies exact relationships between asset returns and the endowment growth rate that will be rejected by all possible realizations. Second, it was thought before that it is not possible to express asset returns in closed form. We show that Labad...

This paper studies the relationship between investor risk preferences and asset returns. The paper provides direct evidence on the risk aversion of participants in a securities market. It uses the prices of lottery bonds issued by the Imperial Russian Government in 1864 and 1866 to estimate investor risk aversion and to study changes in preferences toward risk. Time variation in investor risk p...

Multistage stochastic programming is a key technology for making decisions over time in an uncertain environment. One of the promising areas in which this technology is implementable, is medium term planning of electricity production and trading where decision makers are typically faced with uncertain parameters (such as future demands and market prices) that can be described by stochastic proc...

We examine the relation between US stock market returns and the US business cycle for the period 1960 2003. We identify two channels in the transmission mechanism. One is through the mean of stock returns via the equity risk premium, and the other is through the volatility of returns. We find that the relation is asymmetric with downturns in the business cycle having a greater negative impact o...

Nowadays, traffic management policy in metropolitans is focused on increasing the share of public transit. The limitation of supply and slowing growth of road infrastructures have provided congestion for users who choose personal cars. Therefore, applying demand management policies which decrease the utility of personal cars and increase the tendency to public transit can be very important. Con...