In November 1983, NATO, during what became known as the Able Archer 83 exercise, rehearsed a nuclear response to a hypothetical Soviet attack on Western Europe. For many reasonsÑincluding the anticipated deployment of Pershing II and cruise missiles in EuropeÑSoviet intelligence was at that time actively preparing for a possible surprise nuclear missile attack by the West. Recently declassified...

Like asteroids, hundred-year floods and pandemic disease, thermonuclear war is a low-frequency, high-impact threat. In the long run, catastrophe inevitable if nothing done − yet each successive government generation may fail to address it. Drawing on risk perception research, this paper argues that psychological biases cause threat of nuclear receive less attention than it deserves. Nuclear det...

An open question in nuclear deterrence theory is whether and how the balance of military power affects the dynamics of escalation. The balance of military strength plays virtually no role in standard accounts of brinkmanship. But this largely by assumption and seems incompatible with an apparent trade-off between power and risk that decision makers faced in some actual crises. This paper incorp...

Abstract The climate impacts of smoke from fires ignited by nuclear war would include global cooling and crop failure. Facing increased reliance on ocean-based food sources, it is critical to understand the physical biological state post-war oceans. Here we use an Earth system model simulate six scenarios. We show that can generate a large, sustained response in equatorial Pacific, resembling E...