This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the m...

This paper argues that the existence of bank networks is important for banks ́ reaction to monetary policy. For the example of Germany, the VAR analysis shows that following a monetary contraction small banks access the interbank market indirectly through the head institutions of their respective network organisations. The interbank flows within these networks allow small banks to access funds t...

We examine the effect of oil price uncertainty on sovereign credit risks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Unlike past studies, we employ a structural vector autoregression with multivariate GARCH-in-mean (VAR-GARCH-in-mean) approach after filtering out outliers observed series. The findings show that market has positive impact Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads GCC Furthermore, find ...

This paper estimates the dynamic conditional correlations in the returns on Tapis oil spot and onemonth forward prices for the period 2 June 1992 to 16 January 2004, using recently developed multivariate conditional volatility models, namely the Constant Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH (CCCMGARCH) model of Bollerslev [1990], Vector Autoregressive Moving Average – GARCH (VARMAGARCH) m...

One of the most important methods employed to measure the market risk is value at risk calculation method. In this study, the value at risk of banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and Over-the-counter (OTC) are calculated using parametric model, Monte Carlo simulation, historical simulation and Two-Sided Power (TSP) Distribution. The sample includes all listed banks in Iran. The results sh...

This paper proposes new dynamic component models of returns and realized covariance (RCOV) matrices based on time-varying Wishart distributions. Bayesian estimation and model comparison is conducted with a range of multivariate GARCH models and existing RCOV models from the literature. The main method of model comparison consists of a term-structure of density forecasts of returns for multiple ...

This paper provides new evidence on the dynamics of equity risk premia in euro area stock markets across country and industry portfolios. We develop and estimate a conditional intertemporal CAPM where returns on aggregate euro area, country and industry portfolios depend on the market risk as well as on the risk that the investment opportunity set changes over time. Prices of risks are time-var...

The paper estimate 1-day Value at Risk (VaR) taking into consideration the financial integration of Indian capital market (BSE-SENSEX and NSE-NIFTY) with other global indicators and its own volatility using daily returns covering the period January 2003 to December 2009. The paper specifies a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework to model the phenomena of v...

This paper estimates a structural VAR model of U.S. consumer and world commodity prices. An equiproportional long-run response of nominal price levels to amonetary shock yields identifying restrictions. Exogenous innovations tomonetary policy account for a sizable share of the co-movement of these series, including during episodes more commonly attributed to “supply shocks.” JEL Categories: C32...