This paper revisits the yield spread's usefulness for predicting future real GDP growth. We show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium. We find that both factors are relevant for predicting real GDP growth but the respective contributions differ. We investigate whether the cyclical behav...

Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes, using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of the trend component. We find that there is a strong association at the trend and cycle frequencie...

For many citizens and policymakers, the empirical relationship between economic growth and biodiversity conservation has not been sufficiently established for purposes of identifying the types of economic policies amenable to biodiversity conservation. Some think economic growth conflicts with biodiversity conservation; others think economic growth conduces biodiversity conservation. With panel...

this paper examines the impact of government expenditure on the nigerian economy for the period 1983 - 2012. the government expenditure components used as the explanatory variables in the model are: expenditures on health, education, defense, agriculture and transportation and communication. the gross domestic product (gdp) was used as a parameter for measuring economic growth. in order to esta...

*Correspondence: Daniel Elliott Campbell , Atlantic Ecology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 27 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, RI 02882, USA e-mail: [email protected] Energy Systems Language models of the resource base for the U.S. economy and of economic exchange were us...

Convergence hypothesis is one of the results of neoclassical growth model, which has been examined recently. This hypothesis has two forms of absolute and conditional Beta-convergence and implies that regions with lower per capita output have higher per capita growth rates. Since there is no data for regional GDP in Iran, there has been n study to test convergence hypothesis in Iran. Our main c...

This paper uses a variant of the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) to illustrate how the macroeconomic impact on the United States of the rise in energy prices since the end of 2003 may vary depending on the source of the energy market imbalance. If oil market supply-side factors are driving prices higher, GDP will be permanently lower than it otherwise would be. However, if higher energy prices...

to day reaching a high economic growth rate is one of the main and important aim of any economic system. today the economists accept that economic stability is a necessary issue, but is not enough for the economic growth, while economic instability is one of the main elements, which restrict economic growth. the aim of this research is analysis of the effect of stability index of economy on eco...