[1] Quantifying uncertainty in regional climate change projections is important for a range of reasons. We examine the sensitivity of regional climate change probabilities to various uncertainties. We use a simple probabilistic energy balance model that samples uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions, the climate sensitivity, the carbon cycle, ocean mixing, and aerosol forcing. We then propagat...

Determining the relative importance of local and regional processes for the distribution of population abundance is a fundamental but contentious issue in ecology. In marine systems, classical theory holds that the influence of demographic processes and dispersal is confined to local populations whereas the environment controls regional patterns of abundance. Here, we use spatial synchrony to c...

Some land and ocean processes are related through connections (and synoptic-scale teleconnections) to the atmosphere. Synoptic-scale atmospheric (El Niño/Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]) decadal cycles are known to influence the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Potentially, smaller scale land-ocean connections influenced by co...

[1] The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual a...

Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional heterogeneity of the climate of the State of Washington. If future large-scale weather patterns interact differently with the local terrain and coastlines than current weather patterns, local changes in temperature and precipitation could be ...

[1] Natural archives of oxygen isotopes in precipitation may be used to study changes in the hydrological cycle in the tropics, but their interpretation is not straightforward. We studied to which degree tree rings of Mimosa acantholoba from southern Mexico record variation in isotopic composition of precipitation and which climatic processes influence oxygen isotopes in tree rings (δ18Otr). In...

Despite an increased scientific understanding of the magnitude and regional variation in climate change in the coming decades, the societal costs of climate change remain difficult to quantify. This is mainly due to uncertainty surrounding future climate change and economic projections, as well as the complexities of linking physical impacts to economic processes. One of the sectors for which i...

[1] Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the ...

A signi cant portion of the world's population is under the in uence of monsoon changes. Understanding of physical processes governing the evolution of Asian monsoon is not only important for regional climate variation, but also crucial to global climate variation. Besides bringing rain to land, monsoons also change ocean currents, ocean upwelling, and coastal ecology. Over land the consequence...

325 Land hydrologic responses to meteorological forcing involve complicated exchanges of moisture and energy between soil, vegetation, snowpack, groundwater, and the overlying atmospheric boundary layer. These exchanges occur in the form of many interactive natural hydrologic processes, including precipitation, snow and soil water melting and freezing, infi ltration, storage and movement of soi...