The paper establishes a tight relation between non-standard behaviors in the domains of risk and time by considering a decision maker with non-expected utility preferences who believes that only present consumption is certain while any future consumption is uncertain. We provide the rst complete characterization of the two-way relations between i) certainty e ect and present bias, and, ii) comm...

We show that observed choices in discounting experiments are consistent with roughly one-half of the subjects using exponential discounting and one-half using quasi-hyperbolic discounting. We characterize the latent data generating process using a mixture model which allows different subjects to behave consistently with each model. Our results have substantive implications for the assumptions m...

Interpreting Time Horizon Effects in Inter-Temporal Choice We compare different designs that have been used to test for an impact of time horizon on discounting, using real incentives and two representative data sets. With the most commonly used type of design we replicate the typical finding of declining (hyperbolic) discounting, but with other designs find constant or increasing discounting. ...

It is standard practice in economic evaluation and in any economic analysis of future events to assume the discounted utility model on the part of economic agents. This paper compares the discounted utility model with three hyperbolic discounting models with respect to private and social ®nancial bene®ts. The discounting models are ®tted using non-linear regression techniques to data collected ...

Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains involving choice. We conducted an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of heuristic models of intertemporal choice (which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies) and discounting models. Heuristic models outperformed traditional utility-discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discountin...

A considerable body of evidence indicates that consideration of the future and past are related. Future discounting studies indicate that cigarette smokers discount future outcomes more than non-smokers. The purpose of the present study was to determine if a similar profile of results could be obtained with a novel procedure evaluating the discounting of past outcomes, providing further support...

We provide a theory of random intertemporal choice. Choice is random due to unobserved heterogeneity in discounting from the perspective of a modeler. First, we show that the modeler can identify the distribution of discount rates uniquely from random choice. We then provide axiomatic characterizations of random discounting utility models, including exponential and quasi-hyperbolic discounting ...

The present, subjective value of a delayed reward is a decreasing function of the duration of the delay. This phenomenon is termed temporal discounting. To determine whether the amount of the reward influences the rate of temporal discounting, we had subjects choose between immediate and delayed hypothetical rewards of different amounts ($100, $2,000, $25,000, and $100,000 delayed rewards). As ...