The Southeast Alaska Coastal Monitoring (SECM) project has been sampling juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and associated biophysical parameters in the northern region of Southeast Alaska (SEAK) annually since 1997 to better understand effects of environmental change on salmon production. A pragmatic application of the annual sampling effort is to forecast the abundance of adult salmon return...

The National Weather Service (NWS) recently began providing static inundation maps at selected river forecast points through the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web pages. Positive feedback has motivated efforts to expand the forecast mapping program. In order to expand this mapping program efficiently and effectively, we need a more objective basis for determining where static fo...

This paper establishes properties of optimal forecasts under general loss functions, extending existing results obtained under speci…c functional forms and data generating processes. We propose a new method that changes the probability measure under which the well-known properties of optimal forecasts under mean squared error loss can be recovered. We illustrate the proposed methods through an ...

The domain of multi level forecast combination is a challenging new domain containing a large potential for forecast improvements. This thesis presents a theoretical and experimental analysis of different types of forecast diversification on forecast error covariances and resulting combined forecast quality. Three types of diversification are used: (a) diversification concerning the level of le...