the purpose of this study is presenting a model forecasting financial crisis in tehran stock exchange listed companies. to do this, productive firms that had been accepted in tehran stock exchange between 2002 and 2009, were selected as the study sample. first the independent variables were obtained based on financial ratios and then based on article 141 of the law of commerce, the insolvent an...

It is an essential demand to establish an effective financial risk early-warning system for financial security. But some factors have a lagging effect on financial risk. So this paper aims to construct a reasonable and practical indicator system for financial risk early-warning. First, determine the explained variables of the indicator made up by Chinese financial stress index. Second, confirm ...

The main focus in this study is on data pre-processing, reduction in number of inputs or input space size reduction the purpose of which is the justified generalization of data set in smaller dimensions without losing the most significant data. In case the input space is large, the most important input variables can be identified from which insignificant variables are eliminated, or a variable ...

As the fraudulent financial statement of an enterprise is increasingly serious with each passing day, establishing a valid forecasting fraudulent financial statement model of an enterprise has become an important question for academic research and financial practice. After screening the important variables using the stepwise regression, the study also matches the logistic regression, support ve...

iranian banks can not freely determine their interest rates in the financial market. this characteristic causes banking industry unable to perform their duties of financial intermediaries in the transmission mechanism of monetary. in these circumstances, monetary shocks will have a significant and high effect on the alternative markets (like stocks and housing). in this study, we used dynamic s...

We evaluate the prediction accuracy of models designed using different classification methods depending on the technique used to select variables, and we study the relationship between the structure of the models and their ability to correctly predict financial failure. We show that a neural network based model using a set of variables selected with a criterion that it is adapted to the network...

This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of various financial variables as predictors of U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, and monetary aggregates are evaluated individually and in comparison with other financial and nonfinancial indicators. The analysis focuses on out-of-sample performance from one to eight quarters ahead. Results show that stoc...