We develop a Bayesian multivariate analysis of expert judgment elicited using an extended form of pair-wise comparisons. The method can be used to estimate the effect of multiple factors on the probability of an event and can be applied in risk analysis and other decision problems. The analysis provides variance predictions of the quantity of interest that incorporate dependencies amongst the v...

When developing a causal probabilistic model, i.e. a Bayesian network (BN), it is common to incorporate expert knowledge of factors that are important for decision analysis but where historical data are unavailable or difficult to obtain. This paper focuses on the problem whereby the distribution of some continuous variable in a BN is known from data, but where we wish to explicitly model the i...

Surgical simulation applications have been largely limited to the acquisition and assessment of technical skills. Current teaching and assessment of surgical judgment is nonsystematic and prone to error. Interest in methods to enhance the acquisition and assessment of knowledge-based (judgment) skills for intraoperative decision making has led to the application of cognitive task analysis (CTA)...

The measure for expert dependence proposed by Jouini and Clemen (clemen) is implemented for expert judgement data gathered at the T.U. Delft. Experts show less dependence than might have been supposed, though more sensitive measures might reveal more. Clemen’s copula for aggregation is implemented and performance is compared with performance-based combinations for two illustrative cases.

Managing risk involves making decision on which risks to treat, what treatment to use and how to finance the treatment. Decision-makers need quantitative values to be able to optimize their investment and to effectively distribute the resources available. Since security attacks are future events we have limited amount of information sources for estimation. In order to quantify frequency of occu...

Expert systems use rules to represent experts’ reasoning in solving problems. The rules are based on knowledge about methods and the problem domain. To acquire knowledge for an expert system, one should rely on a variety of sources, such as textbooks, research papers, interviews, surveys, and protocol analysis. Protocol analysis is especially useful if the area to be modeled is complex or if ex...

In many situations characterized by sparse data, occupational hygienists have used subjective judgments that are claimed to be derived from their experience and knowledge. While this practice is widespread, there has been no systematic study of 'expert judgment' or the 'art' of occupational hygiene. Indeed, there is a need to address the question of whether there is such a thing as 'expert opin...

The design of liquid retaining structures involves many decisions to be made by the designer based on rules of thumb, heuristics, judgment, code of practice and previous experience. Structural design problems are often ill structured and there is a need to develop programming environments that can incorporate engineering judgment along with algorithmic tools. Recent developments in artificial i...