The seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM) is thought to be a pre-cursor to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fluctuations in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) impact the ocean via surface heat fluxes during winter, leaving a sea-surface temperature (SST) ‘‘footprint’’ in the subtropics. This footprint persists through the spring, impacting the tropical Pacific atmosphere–ocean circulat...

The El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects many parts of the globe, particularly in the tropics where changes in rainfall and temperature due to the varying phase of ENSO are the single largest source of year-toyear change. Clear ENSO influences on the extratropics are found over North America and Australia but Atlantic links are much less clear. In this short paper we review some of the...

Simulations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled model are analyzed to document and understand the behavior of the evolution of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The analysis is of importance for two reasons: 1) the coupled model used in this study is also used operationally to provide model-based forecast guidance on a seasonal time scale, and ther...

Influenza pandemics has occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Niño and influenza pandemic in 2009–2010, however, suggest that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation o...

Theoretical and empirical studies have suggested that an underestimate of the ENSO asymmetry may be accompanied by a climatologically smaller and warmer western Pacific warm pool. In light of this suggestion, simulations of the tropical Pacific climate by 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) climate models that do not use flux adjustment were evaluated. Our evaluation reveal...

As part of an effort to demonstrate the use of climate predictions for water resources management, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences on stream flow in the Kelani River in Sri Lanka were investigated using correlation analysis, composite analysis and contingency tables. El Niño (warm phase of ENSO) was associated with decreased annual stream flow and La Niña (cold phase of ENSO)...

The evolutions of ENSO modes in the seasonal rainfall patterns over East Africa are examined in this study. The study covers the period 1961–1990. Both rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and simple correlation analyses were used to delineate a network of 136 stations over East Africa into homogeneous rainfall regions in order to derive rainfall indices. Time series generated from the d...

[1] Reanalysis data are used to study the El Niño–SouthernOscillation (ENSO) signal in the troposphere and stratosphere during the late fall to midwinter period. Warm ENSO events have extratropical tropospheric teleconnections that increase the wave 1 eddies and reduce the wave 2 eddies, as compared to cold ENSO. The increase in wave 1 overwhelms the decrease in wave 2, so the net effect is a w...

The relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) is examined, with the goal of understanding how various strong SAM events modulate the ENSO teleconnection to the South Pacific (45 –70 S, 150 – 70 W). The focus is on multi-month, multi-event variations during the last 50 years. A significant (p \ 0.10) relationship is observed, most...

The turnabout and growth mechanisms of the ENSO are diagnostically studied by analyzing the SST budget of the Cane-Zebiak model. The SST change rates, which are directly linked to the phase transition and growth of the ENSO, are attributed to two processes: the anomalous vertical advection of subsurface temperature by the mean upwelling (thermocline feedback), and the zonal advection of the cli...