....................................................................................................................................... 8 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 8 Weather Forecasts ....................................................................................................

Abstract Many macroeconomic forecasts are the outcome of a judgmental adjustment to forecast from an econometric model. The size, direction, and motivation often unknown as usually only final is available. This problematic in case analyst wishes learn errors, which could lead improving model, judgment or both. paper therefore proposes formal method include judgment, makes combined reproducible....

We design a procedure for measuring the United States capital stock of money implied by the Divisia monetary aggregate service flow, in a manner consistent with the present-value model of economic capital stock. We permit non-martingale expectations and time varying discount rates. Based on Barnett’s (1991) definition of the economic stock of money, we compute the U.S. economic stock of money b...

We consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future. We make various assumptions about how forecasters round their forecasts, including that individuals have constant patterns of responses across forecasts. Our primary interests are the impact of rounding on assessments ...

The problem at hand is the integration of expert forecasts for plane prices into a fully calibrated basic economy. The economy is simulated through an Economic Scenario Generator (ESG), which includes macroeconomic processes, interest rate term structures, etc.. By defining the available best-case, worst-case, and mid-case forecasts to correspond to the 95%, the 50% and the 5% quantiles of the ...