[1] ElarmS is a network-based methodology for rapid earthquake detection, location and hazard assessment in the form of magnitude estimation and peak ground motion prediction. The methodology is currently being tested as part of the real-time seismic system in California leveraging the resources of the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and the Advanced National Seismic System. A tota...

A wide set of premonitory seismicity patterns is reproduced on a numerical model of seismicity, and their performance in prediction of major earthquakes is evaluated. Seismicity is generated by the Colliding Cascades Model, recently developed by the same authors. The model has a hierarchical structure. It describes the interaction of two cascades: a direct cascade of loading, which is applied t...

The virtual earthquake approach to ground-motion prediction uses Green’s functions (GFs) determined from the ambient seismic field to predict long-period shaking from scenario earthquakes. The method requires accurate relative GF amplitudes between stations and among components; however, the amplitudes of ambient-field GFs are known to be subject to biases from uneven source distribution. We sh...

This paper reviews issues, models, and methodologies arising out of the problems of predicting earthquakes and forecasting earthquake risk. The emphasis is on statistical methods which attempt to quantify the probability of an earthquake occurring within specified time, space, and magnitude windows. One recurring theme is that such probabilities are best developed from models which specify a ti...

In this research seismicity parameters, repeat times and occurrence probability of large earthquakes are estimated for 35 seismic lineaments in Persian plateau and the surrounding area. 628 earthquakes of historical time and present century with MW>5.5 were used for further data analysis. A probabilistic model is used for forecasting future large earthquake occurrences in each chosen lineament....

The project entitled Global Ground Motion Prediction Equations is funded by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and has the objective of recommending a harmonized suite of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that can be used at the global and regional scales for seismic hazard analysis and loss estimation studies. As part of this project, Task 1a experts were commissioned to mak...