Stagnation as the new norm and fiscal policy are examined in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning determining expectations. We impose inflation and consumption lower bounds, which can be relevant when agents are pessimistic. The inflation target is locally stable under learning. Pessimistic initial expectations may sink the economy into steady-state stagnation with deflation. The deflat...

This paper shows theoretically and empirically that an aggregate Euler equation relates the growth rate of per capita consumption to the real interest rate, the ratio of private wealth plus asset income to consumption, and the ratio of social security wealth to consumption. Using the estimated Euler equation, the paper then calculates the steady-state effects of social security reform. Reforms ...

This paper considers a Ramsey model of linear capital and labor income taxation in which the government cannot commit ex-ante to a sequence of policies for the future. In this setup, if the government is more impatient than the government, the capital income tax will always be positive in steady state. Thus, impatience and lack of commitment are able to generate positive capital taxes in the lo...

This paper investigates empirically the relationship between the pattern of fiscal policy and the demand for international reserves in developing countries, and how this relationship is associated with political risk and conditional access to global capital markets. It finds evidence that for developing countries with low political risk, countercyclical (procyclical) fiscal policies are associa...

Economic theory points out that immigration of even low-skilled immigrants may improve public finances in Western welfare states, and it is some times suggested that fiscal sustainability problems in Western countries caused by ageing populations could be solved by increasing immigration. We examine consequences of various immigration scenarios using the large-scale computable general equilibri...

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature, which is in sharp contrast to the implausibly lo...

This paper extends the two-class monetary growth model by incorporating fiscal activity along the lines of Pasinetti (Cambridge J. Econ. 13, 25–36). Despite this extension, the Cambridge equation is found to be one of long-run equilibria. It is shown that Fiscal policy decreases the accumulation of capital, through an increase in the proportional tax on profits. An inflationary monetary policy ...

We examine the ability of the Expansionary Fiscal Contraction (EFC) hypothesis to explain the performance of of OECD economies during times of crisis. We ̄nd some limited evidence in its favour: if public consumption is reduced in response to a ̄scal crisis (as de ̄ned by a high level of debt), private consumption does seem to increase. However the size of the e®ect is smaller than that typicall...

This paper develops a theory of inequality and the social contract aiming to explain how countries with similar economic and political “fundamentals” can sustain such different systems of social insurance, fiscal redistribution, and education finance as those of the United States and Western Europe. With imperfect credit and insurance markets some redistributive policies can improve ex ante wel...

In the title mol-ecule, C(21)H(18)N(2)S(2), the C=N-N angle of 117.6 (2)° is significantly smaller than the ideal value of 120° expected for sp(2)-hybridized N atoms. This is probably a consequence of repulsion between the nitro-gen lone pairs and the adjacent N atom, as suggested in Zheng, Qiu, Lin & Liu [Acta Cryst. (2006), E62, o1913-o1914]. The two neighbouring benzene rings form a dihedral...